PM Datanote: US Employment, February

A snapshot of a prior age, before the shift in federal government policies undermined confidence.

Samuel TombsUS

10 March 2025 US Monitor February likely will be the last month of resilient payroll growth for a while

• February payroll growth was in line with the trend; the downward skew in revisions has ceased…
• …But the jump in economic policy uncertainty is starting to weigh on hiring and firing decisions.
• Federal worker layoffs and fading catch-up growth in healthcare jobs will aggravate the slowdown.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims / International Trade

Challenger data point to a big rise in claims this spring.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US ISM Services Survey, Feb.

Providing some reassurance on service sector activity.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US ADP Employment, February

 Why use a broken compass when you have GPS?

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US Personal Income & Spending, January

Still set for decent spending growth in Q1 overall, but a slowdown looms further ahead.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US ISM Manufacturing Survey, February

 Manufacturing recovery already showing signs of fading.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Advance Goods Trade, January

Net trade set to drag heavily on growth amid a pre-tariff surge in imports.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

3 March 2025 US Monitor Consumers will crack soon, but spending will rebound in February

• January’s fall in consumption was due to residual seasonality, bad weather and auto-specific issues.
• A February rebound is signalled by timely data on auto sales, consumer lending and restaurant visits.
• A mid-year lull in spending, as real income growth slows, is more likely than a sudden stop in Q1.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims, February 22

Heavy snowfall mostly to blame for the rise.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US Durable Goods Orders, January

Stronger growth in underlying orders unlikely to last much longer.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US New Home Sales, January

Sales still struggling for momentum.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Consumer Confidence, February

Finally smelling the coffee.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US S&P Global Composite PMI, February

Decision-making on hold until the federal policy outlook becomes clearer.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US Existing Home Sales, January

Home sales set to slump in Q1.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims, February 15

DOGE layoffs not a big issue for claims just yet.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

24 February 2025 US Monitor How seriously should we take the PMI's slowdown signal?

• The S&P PMI points to growth in final sales to private domestic purchasers slowing to just 2% in Q1.
• The PMI was too gloomy during the first trade war, but tariff and federal spending risks are bigger now.
• Tariff threats also are driving consumers’ confidence lower and inflation expectations higher.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US FOMC Minutes, January 28/29

Waiting for more disinflation progress to ease again.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Housing Starts, January

The underlying trend in residential construction is flat and likely to turn lower.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US NAHB Housing Market Index, February

Reality bites for homebuilders.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US