US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Datanotes Emerging Asia Weekly Monitor Samuel Tombs
Growth in services spending has slowed only modestly, but a sharper decline lies ahead.
Samuel TombsUS
The downshift in labor cost inflation will resume, soon.
Samuel TombsUS
The downshift in labor cost inflation will resume, soon.
Samuel TombsUS
The post-election pick-up in labor demand has fully unwound.
Samuel TombsUS
No preemptive layoffs by tariff-afflicted firms, but cuts are likely when sales struggle.
Samuel TombsUS
- We look for a 150K increase in April payrolls and a stable unemployment rate at 4.2%…
- …Job postings, initial claims and the employment indexes of business surveys were little changed.
- A calendar quirk will depress April average hourly earnings, but the trend is slowing.
Samuel TombsUS
Slowing, not careering towards recession.
Samuel TombsUS
- People are the most downbeat about the outlook for 45 years and are very worried about losing their job.
- Timely spending and borrowing data, however, continue to run above levels consistent with recession.
- Tariff-related inflation will be milder than people fear; Fed policy easing will shore up sentiment too.
Samuel TombsUS
Tariffs will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Samuel TombsUS
Healthcare driving payroll growth again; ongoing support will offset some tariff damage.
Samuel TombsUS
- The stock price drawdown is historically consistent with a 1% fall in payrolls, but slow gains are more likely.
- Most services firms have little exposure to tariffs; leading indicators of hiring are weak, not on the floor.
- The healthcare sector will remain a jobs juggernaut; falling manufacturing payrolls will drag modestly.
Samuel TombsUS
Clear signs of an underlying consumer slowdown.
Samuel TombsUS
- GDP looks set to grow at a mere 1% pace in Q1, following February’s weak consumption data.
- Fading pre-tariff frontrunning, however, explains the slowdown; core services spending is still rising.
- Tariffs will weigh on real income growth by less than 1%; recession remains unlikely.
Samuel TombsUS
Reeling from the tariff threats.
Samuel TombsUS
- Improving aggregate household balance sheets last year masked a big rise in loan delinquencies.
- More people will miss loan payments as unemployment increases and student loan payments jump.
- The sharp fall in stock prices likely will weigh on the March flash estimate of the S&P composite PMI.
Samuel TombsUS
- The economy has never dodged recession in the last 45 years with unemployment expectations so high…
- …But WARN data, Indeed job postings and hiring intentions have deteriorated less dramatically.
- Consumers think tariffs will boost inflation by about 2pp; the reality won’t be that bad.
Samuel TombsUS
A snapshot of a prior age, before the shift in federal government policies undermined confidence.
Samuel TombsUS
- February payroll growth was in line with the trend; the downward skew in revisions has ceased…
- …But the jump in economic policy uncertainty is starting to weigh on hiring and firing decisions.
- Federal worker layoffs and fading catch-up growth in healthcare jobs will aggravate the slowdown.
Samuel TombsUS
Challenger data point to a big rise in claims this spring.
Samuel TombsUS
Why use a broken compass when you have GPS?
Samuel TombsUS
