Cracks starting to show in the labor market.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Net trade and inventories on course for a big combined boost to headline GDP in Q2.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Consumption still resilient, but a slowdown looms.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Consumers’ spending is on track for respectable growth in Q2, but a sharper slowdown looms...
- ...As tariff-induced prices increases push up core PCE inflation, weighing on real incomes.
- Tariff-related distortions to the trade and inventories likely will artificially boost Q2 GDP growth.
Samuel TombsUS
Tariff uncertainty comes for the housing market.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Consumers breathe a sigh of relief, but the labor market still is softening.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Equipment investment is set to fall sharply.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Payrolls in the retail, wholesale and goods transportation sectors have leapt by 200K since November...
- ...These gains will unwind as goods demand slumps, but probably after July FOMC meeting.
- Tariffs of 50% on EU imports would boost the core PCE deflator by 0.5% and hit GDP by around 1%.
Samuel TombsUS
Economy robust in the face of tariff uncertainty for now.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Still impeded by high mortgage rates and elevated uncertainty.
Samuel TombsUS
Little changed from previous weeks, but weak hiring indicators point to a deterioration soon.
Samuel TombsUS
Extremely low response rate and partisan divide raise questions over reliability.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Pointing to a sharp fall in new home sales & residential construction.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Recent resilience unlikely to last beyond the summer.
Samuel TombsUS
Pointing to a mere 0.12% rise in the core PCE deflator, and margin pressure for distributors.
Samuel TombsUS
Further weakness probably lies in store.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- April import price data damage the theory that overseas manufacturers will absorb some tariff costs.
- PPI trade services prices—gross margins—usually are revised up; retailers are planning June price hikes.
- Residential construction payrolls are vulnerable to a drop in housing starts; the market is oversupplied.
Samuel TombsUS
Tariff shock puts small business under further pressure.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Mismeasurement likely distorting the Q1 numbers; underlying trend solid.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- We look for a below-consensus 0.2% gain in the April headline CPI; the egg price surge likely unwound…
- …But rising vehicle prices and a partial rebound in hotel room rates likely drove a 0.3% rise in the core CPI.
- It's too soon to see major tariff-related price hikes, and weak demand suggests airline fares stayed lower.
Samuel TombsUS