Pantheon Macroeconomics

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US Publications

Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Datanotes Emerging Asia Weekly Monitor

PM Datanote: US Advance Goods Trade, April

Net trade and inventories on course for a big combined boost to headline GDP in Q2.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

2 June 2025 US Monitor Weaker consumers' spending and higher core inflation lie ahead

  • Consumers’ spending is on track for respectable growth in Q2, but a sharper slowdown looms...
  • ...As tariff-induced prices increases push up core PCE inflation, weighing on real incomes.
  • Tariff-related distortions to the trade and inventories likely will artificially boost Q2 GDP growth.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US Consumer Confidence, May

Consumers breathe a sigh of relief, but the labor market still is softening.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

27 May 2025 US Monitor Labor market weakness will emerge, but not before July's FOMC meeting

  • Payrolls in the retail, wholesale and goods transportation sectors have leapt by 200K since November...
  • ...These gains will unwind as goods demand slumps, but probably after July FOMC meeting.
  • Tariffs of 50% on EU imports would boost the core PCE deflator by 0.5% and hit GDP by around 1%.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US S&P Global Composite PMI, May

Economy robust in the face of tariff uncertainty for now.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Existing Home Sales, April

 Still impeded by high mortgage rates and elevated uncertainty.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims, May 17

 Little changed from previous weeks, but weak hiring indicators point to a deterioration soon.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US Michigan Sentiment Survey, May

 Extremely low response rate and partisan divide raise questions over reliability.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US NAHB Housing Market Index, May

 Pointing to a sharp fall in new home sales & residential construction.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Industrial Production, April

Recent resilience unlikely to last beyond the summer.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US PPI, April

Pointing to a mere 0.12% rise in the core PCE deflator, and margin pressure for distributors.

Samuel TombsUS

19 May 2025 US Monitor April data consistent with consumers bearing nearly all the tariff costs

  • April import price data damage the theory that overseas manufacturers will absorb some tariff costs.
  • PPI trade services prices—gross margins—usually are revised up; retailers are planning June price hikes.
  • Residential construction payrolls are vulnerable to a drop in housing starts; the market is oversupplied.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US Productivity, Q1

Mismeasurement likely distorting the Q1 numbers; underlying trend solid.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

12 May 2025 US Monitor April CPI set to show inflation had been tamed, before the tariff shock

  • We look for a below-consensus 0.2% gain in the April headline CPI; the egg price surge likely unwound…
  • …But rising vehicle prices and a partial rebound in hotel room rates likely drove a 0.3% rise in the core CPI.
  • It's too soon to see major tariff-related price hikes, and weak demand suggests airline fares stayed lower.

Samuel TombsUS

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Keywords for: U.S. Documents

U.S. Document Vault, independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence,