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Positive near-term revisions offset the subpar January print; a March easing is off the table.
Trend still low for now; leading indicators paint a mixed picture.
Poor track record suggests ADP’s resilient picture should be disregarded.
Labor demand still deteriorating, amid tight monetary policy and elevated uncertainty.
Continuing claims consistent with flat unemployment in January.
Disinflation still progressing; core PCE deflator likely up just 0.2%.
Massive rise in airline fares leaves core PCE deflator set to rise by 0.3%.
Claims are noisy at the turn of the year; forward-looking indicators point to a renewed rise ahead.
The post-election pick-up in sentiment has faded quickly.
Shipments point to unchanged equipment investment in Q4.
Expect further mild core PCE increases in the near term.
Some signs of pre-tariff inventory accumulation, but few firms are raising prices.
Pointing to a 0.2% core PCE print; the FOMC can ease again with a clear conscience.
The first estimate of job postings is noisy; labor demand is still weakening.
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