US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Chartbook Datanotes Weekly Monitor Samuel Tombs
- Growth in consumers’ real spending has stabilized following in sharp slowdown in H1 2025...
- ...But the labor market is set to remain weak, and most of the uplift to prices from tariffs lies ahead.
- We think spending will grow only at a meager 1-to-1½% pace in second half of this year.
- Adobe and PriceStats data point to a slowing passthrough from the tariffs to consumer prices...
- ...But the ISM services survey sends the opposite signal; we are taking the middle position.
- Demand for air travel seems to be recovering, but hotel room rates likely are sustainably lower.
Revisions reveal a sharp slowdown; September easing incoming.
- Meager job gains in July and huge downward revisions leave payrolls looking far weaker than before.
- Private payrolls ex-healthcare fell by 16K per month on average in the three months to July.
- The stable unemployment rate reflects young people deferring active job search; hidden slack is mounting.
- We think headline GDP leapt by around 3% in Q2 overall, but underlying growth was much weaker…
- …Look for a tepid 1½% gain consumers’ spending and a drop of about 2½% in fixed investment…
- …But measurement issues likely meant a huge contribution from net trade was only partly offset elsewhere.
CONSUMERS’ SPENDING IS SLOWING...
- ...WEAKER PAYROLLS IN Q3 WILL EXERT FURTHER PRESSURE
Hard to trust given the rock-bottom response rate.
- The jump in June education jobs is more likely to be revised away than to unwind over coming months.
- June education jobs were revised down in 2022, 2023 and 2024; no other data corroborate the 2025 jump.
- A structural break following a mid-2024 methodology change makes the Michigan survey hard to believe.
Services disinflation is partly countering the tariff uplift to goods prices.
A knock-out punch to the tariff inflation deniers.
- The slowdown in consumption this year has been sharpest in areas dominated by higher earners...
- ...Slower asset price gains and expected real wage declines have weighed more than tax hike risk.
- Mortgage applications have risen sharply; people are fed up waiting for mortgage rates to fall.
- June private payrolls ex-education and healthcare rose just 23K; revisions will reveal an even weaker picture.
- Hiring intentions remain depressed; new tax breaks are unlikely to offset tariff costs and uncertainty soon.
- The drop in unemployment looks like noise; payroll growth will undershoot the break-even rate in H2.
- Spending fell by 0.3% in May, with little chance of a June rebound, and further weakness likely in Q3.
- The 0.4% fall in May incomes was due to one-time factors, but real income growth is set to stagnate.
- The core PCE deflator surprised to the upside in May, but the 0.18% rise will pale in comparison to June.
LEADING LABOR MARKET INDICATORS HAVE WORSENED…
THE FED WILL EASE IN SEP, BEFORE INFLATION PEAKS
- Real income growth has already slowed significantly, and will grind to a halt as tariffs boost consumer prices.
- Spending growth likely will soften too; households’ balance sheets are less supportive than post-Covid.
- We expect growth in consumers’ spending to slow just 1% by Q4, down from nearly 3% in Q1.
Demand still falling amid high mortgage rates and elevated uncertainty.
Holding on to Q1's gains, for now.
- We look for a below-consensus drop in May retail sales of about 1%, driven by autos and other durables.
- Spending elsewhere seems to be holding up relatively well for now, but that will change as prices start to rise.
- Real incomes likely will stagnate in Q3; households no longer have the means to fuel strong spending growth.
Still waiting for the tariffs to hit.
