18 August 2025 US Monitor Consumption growth is stabilizing, at a sluggish pace

• Growth in consumers’ real spending has stabilized following in sharp slowdown in H1 2025...
• ...But the labor market is set to remain weak, and most of the uplift to prices from tariffs lies ahead.
• We think spending will grow only at a meager 1-to-1½% pace in second half of this year.

PM Datanote: US NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey, July 2025

 Collapsing response rate casts doubt, but the backdrop looks weak.

11 August 2025 US Monitor July core CPI likely rose by 0.3%, as the tariffs continued to bleed through

• Adobe and PriceStats data point to a slowing passthrough from the tariffs to consumer prices...
• ...But the ISM services survey sends the opposite signal; we are taking the middle position.
• Demand for air travel seems to be recovering, but hotel room rates likely are sustainably lower.

PM Datanote: US Productivity, Q2 2025

Flattered by GDP distortions in Q2, but the underlying trend still is solid.

PM Datanote: US ISM Services Survey, July 2025

Probably a false alarm on services inflation.

PM Datanote: US ISM Manufacturing Survey, July 2025

A further climb in goods inflation is still in the pipeline.

PM Datanote: US Employment, July 2025

Revisions reveal a sharp slowdown; September easing incoming.

4 August 2025 US Monitor Dire July employment report makes a September easing far more likely

• Meager job gains in July and huge downward revisions leave payrolls looking far weaker than before.
• Private payrolls ex-healthcare fell by 16K per month on average in the three months to July.
• The stable unemployment rate reflects young people deferring active job search; hidden slack is mounting.

PM Datanote: US Personal Incomes & Spending, June 2025

Core inflation set to climb further as spending barely grows.

PM Datanote: US Pending Home Sales, June

Going nowhere fast.

PM Datanote: US Advance GDP, Q2

Underlying growth has slowed sharply since late 2024.

PM Datanote: US Durable Goods Orders, June

Underlying investment looks stagnant at best.

28 July 2025 US Monitor Headline GDP likely jumped by 3% in Q2, obscuring underlying weakness

• We think headline GDP leapt by around 3% in Q2 overall, but underlying growth was much weaker…
• …Look for a tepid 1½% gain consumers’ spending and a drop of about 2½% in fixed investment…
• …But measurement issues likely meant a huge contribution from net trade was only partly offset elsewhere.

PM Datanote: US S&P Global PMI / New Home Sales

Bounce in the PMI looks too good to be true.

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims, July 19

Auto shutdowns distort the picture; labor market likely still loosening.

PM Datanote: US Existing Home Sales, June

Weak demand and recovering supply are putting pressure on prices.

July 2025 - US Economic Chartbook

CONSUMERS’ SPENDING IS SLOWING...

• ...WEAKER PAYROLLS IN Q3 WILL EXERT FURTHER PRESSURE

PM Datanote: US Housing Starts, June

The underlying trend in residential construction is flat and likely to turn lower.

PM Datanote: US Michigan Sentiment Survey, July

Hard to trust given the rock-bottom response rate.

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims, July 12

Low simply because auto plant shutdowns have been less prevalent than usual.