US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Chartbook Datanotes Weekly Monitor Samuel Tombs
CONSUMPTION TO SLOW IN Q2 AS REAL INCOMES FALL...
- ...FOMC TO WORRY MORE ABOUT JOBS THAN THE CPI IN Q4
- Zillow’s measure of new rents increased in April by less than 0.10%, for the fourth straight month.
- The recent further rise in the vacancy rate and pickup in multi-family starts implies the glut will continue.
- Rent’s contribution to core CPI inflation will be 0.3pp lower by year-end, overwhelming the energy hit.
Retailers’ healthy margins suggest tariff pass-though now complete.
Soft core increase shows domestically-generated inflation in check.
- A record jump in gas prices hugely boosted the CPI in March; expect a further 0.2pp hit in April.
- The core CPI likely will be lifted in April by a rebound in used auto prices and a catch-up increase in rents...
- ...But the fading tariff boost and slowing rent rises will drag down inflation in H2, despite higher oil prices.
- The rebound in March payrolls was driven by the end of strikes, benign weather and residual seasonality.
- More timely measures of job openings suggest labor demand has weakened since the Iran war began.
- Unemployment dipped as some people looked less actively for work; history points to a swift reversal.
- March payrolls will rebound after February’s drop, but a sustained strengthening is not in the cards.
- The end of a major strike will add 32K to March jobs, but recent support from mild weather is over.
- Claims data suggest the unemployment rate was stable in March, but the risks are to the upside.
HIGHER GAS PRICES WILL HIT REAL INCOMES BY 1%
- THE FED WILL WORRY MORE ABOUT JOBS THAN THE CPI IN Q4
- The 1990 oil shock was key to the ensuing recession; the FOMC eventually eased despite 6% inflation.
- The economy is less oil intensive and firms’ balance sheets are more robust now; a recession is unlikely...
- ...But this FOMC has been very responsive to labor market weakness; we still expect easing by year-end.
- January was the fifth straight month of sub-0.3% gains in real consumption; the worst since 2012.
- Oil prices will squeeze real incomes by 11/4% if they are sustained at $100, or 1/2% if they follow futures.
- Households lack the balance sheet strength to brush this aside; spending will grow only modestly.
- Only part of the drop in February payrolls was due to strikes and the birth-death model.
- The trend in first estimates of payrolls is only about 25K, implying falling employment after revisions.
- Drivers soon will be paying $4.00 per gallon for gas, squeezing real disposable income and hitting jobs.
- The personal saving rate can be heavily revised, but we think most of the recent fall is genuine.
- The low saving rate and soft growth in incomes will restrain growth in consumers’ spending.
- PPI data suggest retailers’ margins have normalized, pointing to slowing core goods inflation ahead.
Pointing to a slowdown in underlying GDP growth in Q1.
Underlying growth still solid in Q4, but likely to wane.
- Headline GDP growth in Q4 was depressed by the federal shutdown; underlying growth was robust.
- Consumers, however, will slow down this year and non-AI capex will remain weak.
- The effective tariff rate will be slightly lower under the new tariffs, but the inflation outlook is little changed.
Relapsing independently of the snowstorms.
JANUARY PAYROLLS ARE JUST A FLASH IN THE PAN...
- ...SLOW JOB GAINS & LOWER INFLATION WILL SPUR EASING
Permits still lower than in early 2025; a further drop beckons.
- The rise in the unadjusted January core CPI was similar to typical increases in the late 2010s.
- Used auto prices will rebound, but increases for goods ex-autos will slow after January’s one-time hikes.
- New rents are now barely rising, signalling a substantial fall in CPI shelter inflation over the next year.
