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Flat trend in permits points to relapse in starts soon.
REAL INCOMES WILL DROP THIS SUMMER...
Rising mortgage rates and low confidence are stifling demand.
Stagnant, with no positive catalyst immediately in sight.
A mixed bag; hiring indicators suggest a long wait for a substantial improvement.
Labor demand still trending down, implying March payrolls jump was just a blip.
Spending temporarily supported by tax refunds; stagnation likely in Q2.
Spending growth probably still slowing, labor market still weak.
Returning to last year’s average; a further recovery looks unlikely.
Initially resilient, but near-real time data now show gas price pain.
CONSUMPTION TO SLOW IN Q2 AS REAL INCOMES FALL...
Retailers’ healthy margins suggest tariff pass-though now complete.
Soft core increase shows domestically-generated inflation in check.
HIGHER GAS PRICES WILL HIT REAL INCOMES BY 1%
Pointing to a slowdown in underlying GDP growth in Q1.
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