Pantheon Macroeconomics
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CONSUMPTION TO SLOW IN Q2 AS REAL INCOMES FALL...
A mediocre end to Q1, but the surveys look promising.
Early signs of a manufacturing margins squeeze.
Fallout from the war adding to the pressures on homebuilders.
Retailers’ healthy margins suggest tariff pass-though now complete.
Small business capex plans drop to a post-GFC low.
Further reason to expect a consumer slowdown.
Soft core increase shows domestically-generated inflation in check.
Consumption already weak before the energy shock.
Underlying capex still looks relatively weak.
Probably providing a false read on services inflation.
Net trade on track for a big drag on headline GDP growth in Q1.
Stronger sales reflect one-time boosts, underlying trend probably still weak
Energy shock adding to the headwinds for growth and employment.
HIGHER GAS PRICES WILL HIT REAL INCOMES BY 1%

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