US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Daily Monitor Samuel Tombs
- April’s 0.38% rise in the core CPI was driven by one-time jumps in rents, airline fares and tax services.
- Surveys point to bigger rises in core goods prices, but apparel prices will fall from weather-boosted levels.
- Measures of new rents have stalled; we look for 0.20% rises in the core CPI over the next three months.
- The tariffs passed through fully to the CPI by March, but energy-driven goods price hikes will take time...
- Used auto prices and airline fares probably jumped in April, while rents likely rose at twice their trend...
- ...The BLS will use a calculation that will unwind its no-change assumption for rents last October.
- Oil consumption has risen despite soaring prices; goods producers are preparing for disruptions.
- Surveys point to a bigger rise in core goods prices than implied by the rise in oil prices alone.
- We still look for a further 75bp easing but we now expect the first cut in December, not September.
- Weak JOLTS job openings in March push back against the theory that labor demand is picking up.
- Soft hiring and low quits signal limited second-round inflation risk after the energy shock.
- Mounting pressures on homebuilders suggest residential construction payrolls will start falling again.
- GDP grew by 2.0% in Q1, but underlying momentum was weak even before the energy shock hit in full.
- Consumers’ spending slowed further, while investment outside the tech sector dipped again.
- Core PCE inflation will climb further in the near term, but we expect it to be back below 3% by year-end.
- Most Committee members stuck to language implying an easing bias, rather than placate the hawks.
- Powell’s decision to stay on means the President must use Miran’s seat to place Warsh on the FOMC.
- We look for Q1 GDP growth of 1.8%, with consumption mediocre and investment lifted by the AI boom.
- Regular gasoline prices hit a 2026 high earlier this week, despite the modest dip in oil prices.
- Spending on fuel and discretionary services is solid for now, but demand usually wilts after a few months.
- The labor market components of the Conference Board survey suggest hiring remains very weak.
- The FOMC statement is unlikely to cite “two-sided” policy risk, despite better labor market data…
- …GDP growth is slow, upside inflation risks have eased, and inflation expectations remain unalarming.
- GDPNow’s Q1 estimate understates the rebound in federal spending, but the underlying picture is weak.
- Bank lending to businesses has shot up this year; often this signals faster growth in capex...
- ...But this time the jump in lending likely reflects a tightening of access to private credit.
- The S&P Global PMI probably is overstating the upward pressure on core inflation.
- Weekly ADP payroll data and the ASA’s staffing index have picked up, but both have poor track records.
- Measures of job openings have worsened, and our preferred indicators of payrolls haven’t improved.
- The impact of AI on the economy looks too uncertain to justify rate cuts in the near term.
- March control retail sales rose the most since August, despite the jump in gas prices...
- ...but spending is unlikely to rise further in Q2, as support from tax refunds and the weather fades.
- Kevin Warsh sounded less sure that AI adoption will make room for much lower rates.
- Households often borrow more when gas prices surge, and banks have become more willing to lend...
- ...But high interest rates, elevated delinquencies and low confidence suggest people will be cautious.
- Surveys suggest a better times ahead for manufacturers, but big headwinds remain.
- The 0.1% rise in the March core PPI masked heat in components which feed into the core PCE deflator...
- ...But inflation still look set to fall in H2 as the uplift from tariffs fades, offsetting the energy price boost.
- The fall in the capex intentions index of the NFIB survey to a post-GFC low is most likely noise.
- Real consumption likely rose 0.3% in February; unofficial data point to robust non-gas spending in March...
- ...But the lift to incomes from tax refunds will be over soon; lower stock prices will add to the headwinds.
- The February core PCE deflator likely rose 0.4%, due to residual seasonality and some volatile components.
- The biggest one-month jump in gas prices since at least 1957 likely boosted the headline CPI by 0.7pp.
- Airline fares probably jumped too, while used vehicle prices are overdue a rebound…
- …But prices for other services likely rose only modestly, justifying the FOMC’s wait-and-see stance.
- Low claims reflect few layoffs, but hiring is still too weak to absorb fully modest growth in labor supply.
- March business surveys point to Q1 GDP growth of about 2% in Q1...
- ...But the jump in oil prices has triggered a surge in inventory building, supporting demand only briefly.
- The oil futures prices relevant for new capital investment have risen by much less than spot prices.
- Greater capital discipline means oil investment is less responsive to jumps in prices than in the past.
- Either way, oil and gas investment is a very small share of the overall economy.
- The Q1 fall in households’ wealth implies a $50B hit to spending, equal to 0.2% of annual consumption.
- Spending on recreation services is closely correlated with changes in households’ wealth...
- ...and near-real time data indicate that food services spending is already taking a hit.
- Higher gas prices look set to reduce real household incomes by roughly $15B a month.
- Tax refunds will boost incomes by about $10B year-over-year in February to April, but taper off thereafter.
- Bigger refunds also will do little to help lower income households hit hardest by higher gas prices.
- The median FOMC member still expects to ease policy by 25bp this year, unchanged from December.
- The new, higher forecasts for core PCE inflation are plausible, but those for stable unemployment are not.
- PPI data show retailers have passed on all the tariff costs to consumers; margins back on track.
