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More to the uptick in claims than residual seasonality.
Net trade and inventories on course for a big combined boost to headline GDP in Q2.
Trade and inventories data leave a negative Q1 GDP print looking far more likely.
No real sign yet of tariff-linked layoffs.
Gold trade and pre-tariff stockpiling are distorting the numbers.
Equipment investment likely to remain anemic at best.
Net trade set to drag heavily on growth amid a pre-tariff surge in imports.
Stronger growth in underlying orders unlikely to last much longer.
DOGE layoffs not a big issue for claims just yet.
Net trade and inventories likely dragged heavily on Q4 GDP growth.
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