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Auto shutdowns distort the picture; labor market likely still loosening.
Low simply because auto plant shutdowns have been less prevalent than usual.
More to the uptick in claims than residual seasonality.
Trade and inventories data leave a negative Q1 GDP print looking far more likely.
No real sign yet of tariff-linked layoffs.
Pre-tariff jump in manufacturing output likely to reverse sharply.
Confidence crumbling even before "Liberation Day".
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