Pantheon Macroeconomics
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Trade and inventories data leave a negative Q1 GDP print looking far more likely.
No real sign yet of tariff-linked layoffs.
Pre-tariff jump in manufacturing output likely to reverse sharply.
Confidence crumbling even before "Liberation Day".
DOGE layoffs not a big issue for claims just yet.
Post-Thanksgiving volatility probably drove the jump in initial claims.
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