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Still painting a subdued picture of the main street economy.
The recent resilience in consumers’ spending probably is on borrowed time.
Strong productivity growth is restraining unit labor costs.
Soft sales and high inventory point to price cuts and a drop in housing starts.
Spending growth probably still slowing, labor market still weak.
Core services inflation unlikely to accelerate sharply.
A mediocre end to Q1, but the surveys look promising.
Early signs of a manufacturing margins squeeze.
Fallout from the war adding to the pressures on homebuilders.
Small business capex plans drop to a post-GFC low.
Further reason to expect a consumer slowdown.
Consumption already weak before the energy shock.
Underlying capex still looks relatively weak.
Probably providing a false read on services inflation.
Net trade on track for a big drag on headline GDP growth in Q1.
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