US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)
- Core retail sales were very strong again in April; sales in February and March were revised up too.
- But spending looks set to falter ahead, as the lift from tax refunds fades, and gas prices stay elevated.
- We now look for a 1% expansion in consumers’ spending in Q2, but a mere 0.5% gain in Q3.
- Half of the rise in the April core PPI was due to a jump in gross margins; they won’t stay so high for long.
- A further third of the gain was driven by a step jump in transportation prices; unlikely to be repeated..
- Data center investment still is providing only a small lift to overall construction activity and employment.
Still painting a subdued picture of the main street economy.
- The hit to April sales from high gas prices and cooler weather likely was offset by strong tax refunds.
- We look for a 0.4% increase in headline sales, and a further 0.2% uptick in the retail control measure.
- Spending likely will slow sharply from May, however, as gas prices stay high and refunds taper off.
The recent resilience in consumers’ spending probably is on borrowed time.
Strong productivity growth is restraining unit labor costs.
Too unreliable to bank on a labor market upturn.
Soft sales and high inventory point to price cuts and a drop in housing starts.
- Tech capex is booming, but not all of this spending is AI-related, and much is spent on imports.
- We think the direct boost to GDP growth from AI investment likely is running at only around 0.2pp.
- Consumers’ spending and non-tech investment are weak, and are in need of more policy support.
Prices index likely sending a false alarm.
Growth outside of the tech sector already was anemic ahead of the energy shock.
Q1 GDP now on track for sub-2% growth.
Spending growth probably still slowing, labor market still weak.
Core services inflation unlikely to accelerate sharply.
- S&P 500 earnings expectations often are wrong-footed by big surprises in the economy’s performance.
- The earnings of large companies also have only a loose relationship with broader economic growth.
- The recent upturn in expected EPS mostly reflects booming AI capex and higher commodity prices.
A mediocre end to Q1, but the surveys look promising.
Early signs of a manufacturing margins squeeze.
Fallout from the war adding to the pressures on homebuilders.
Small business capex plans drop to a post-GFC low.
- A huge leap in nominal sales of gasoline likely meant a strong March headline retail sales print.
- Core sales probably also were supported by big tax refunds and unseasonably warm weather.
- We still expect the hit to real incomes from higher gas prices to mean a weak Q2 for consumers.
