Pantheon Macroeconomics

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US Publications

Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims, July 19

Auto shutdowns distort the picture; labor market likely still loosening.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Existing Home Sales, June

Weak demand and recovering supply are putting pressure on prices.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

25 July 2025 US Monitor. Trade deal progress implies little change in average tariff rates

  • Recent completed and rumoured trade “deals” mean August 1 looks like less of a tariff cliff-edge. 
  • But these agreements imply little change in the overall average effective tariff rate on US imports. 
  • The weakness in new home sales in June probably is here to stay, weighing further on housing starts. 

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

24 July 2025 US Monitor The slide in the dollar looks like all pain and no gain

  • We expect a partial recovery in the dollar as the President rows back some of his wilder tariff threats…
  • …But the sharp dollar decline this year so far will add, at the margin, to the upward pressure on inflation.
  • Continued uncertainty around trade policy probably will prevent a meaningful dollar boost to exports. 

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

23 July 2025 US Monitor Further fall in housing inflation will give the Fed some breathing room

  • Housing inflation will fall much further over the rest of this year, lagging the real-time rent data…
  • …Lower housing inflation will offset about a quarter of the remaining uplift from tariff pass-through.
  • It's in no one's interest for the administration to seek to oust Fed Chair Powell.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Housing Starts, June

The underlying trend in residential construction is flat and likely to turn lower.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims, July 12

Low simply because auto plant shutdowns have been less prevalent than usual.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Retail Sales, June

Sales growth less impressive in real terms; consumer slowdown continues.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US FOMC Minutes, June 18 Meeting

Committee is more clearly split; weaker labor market to tip the balance by September.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

11 July 2025 US Monitor Immigration probably will continue to add meaningfully to labor supply

  • President Trump’s policies will slow the flow of immigration into the US, but not halt it entirely.
  • The idea that a big migrant exodus from the labor market is already underway is at odds with the data.
  • We continue to think labor demand will grow more slowly than supply, lifting the unemployment rate.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey, June

Plunging response rate raises big questions about reliability.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US ISM Services Survey, June

A big jump in services inflation still looks unlikely.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US ADP Employment, June

Implausible sector breakdown highlights ADP's uselessness.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

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U.S. Document Vault, independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence,