US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)
Probably a false alarm on services inflation.
A further climb in goods inflation is still in the pipeline.
Core inflation set to climb further as spending barely grows.
Underlying growth has slowed sharply since late 2024.
Underlying investment looks stagnant at best.
Bounce in the PMI looks too good to be true.
Auto shutdowns distort the picture; labor market likely still loosening.
Weak demand and recovering supply are putting pressure on prices.
- Recent completed and rumoured trade “deals” mean August 1 looks like less of a tariff cliff-edge.
- But these agreements imply little change in the overall average effective tariff rate on US imports.
- The weakness in new home sales in June probably is here to stay, weighing further on housing starts.
- We expect a partial recovery in the dollar as the President rows back some of his wilder tariff threats…
- …But the sharp dollar decline this year so far will add, at the margin, to the upward pressure on inflation.
- Continued uncertainty around trade policy probably will prevent a meaningful dollar boost to exports.
- Housing inflation will fall much further over the rest of this year, lagging the real-time rent data…
- …Lower housing inflation will offset about a quarter of the remaining uplift from tariff pass-through.
- It's in no one's interest for the administration to seek to oust Fed Chair Powell.
The underlying trend in residential construction is flat and likely to turn lower.
Low simply because auto plant shutdowns have been less prevalent than usual.
Sales growth less impressive in real terms; consumer slowdown continues.
Committee is more clearly split; weaker labor market to tip the balance by September.
- President Trump’s policies will slow the flow of immigration into the US, but not halt it entirely.
- The idea that a big migrant exodus from the labor market is already underway is at odds with the data.
- We continue to think labor demand will grow more slowly than supply, lifting the unemployment rate.
Plunging response rate raises big questions about reliability.
A big jump in services inflation still looks unlikely.
Implausible sector breakdown highlights ADP's uselessness.
