US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)
Too unreliable to bank on a labor market upturn.
Soft sales and high inventory point to price cuts and a drop in housing starts.
- Tech capex is booming, but not all of this spending is AI-related, and much is spent on imports.
- We think the direct boost to GDP growth from AI investment likely is running at only around 0.2pp.
- Consumers’ spending and non-tech investment are weak, and are in need of more policy support.
Prices index likely sending a false alarm.
Growth outside of the tech sector already was anemic ahead of the energy shock.
Q1 GDP now on track for sub-2% growth.
Spending growth probably still slowing, labor market still weak.
Core services inflation unlikely to accelerate sharply.
- S&P 500 earnings expectations often are wrong-footed by big surprises in the economy’s performance.
- The earnings of large companies also have only a loose relationship with broader economic growth.
- The recent upturn in expected EPS mostly reflects booming AI capex and higher commodity prices.
A mediocre end to Q1, but the surveys look promising.
Early signs of a manufacturing margins squeeze.
Fallout from the war adding to the pressures on homebuilders.
Small business capex plans drop to a post-GFC low.
- A huge leap in nominal sales of gasoline likely meant a strong March headline retail sales print.
- Core sales probably also were supported by big tax refunds and unseasonably warm weather.
- We still expect the hit to real incomes from higher gas prices to mean a weak Q2 for consumers.
Sales going nowhere fast.
- The data available so far point to GDP growth a bit below 2% in the first quarter.
- Consumption was soft and net trade was a big drag, but government spending rebounded.
- Residual seasonality probably explains only a fraction of the slow underlying momentum last quarter.
Further reason to expect a consumer slowdown.
Consumption already weak before the energy shock.
- February data imply consumers’ spending likely rose by only about 1% in Q1...
- ...The looming real income squeeze and low confidence point to broadly flat spending in Q2.
- Core PCE inflation will be lower by year-end, despite higher energy prices, as the tariff uplift fades.
Underlying capex still looks relatively weak.
