PM Datanote: US Consumer Confidence, December 2025

Yet more grim news on the labor market.

PM Datanote: US Industrial Production, October/November 2025

Manufacturing is surviving rather than thriving.

PM Datanote: US GDP, Q3 2025 / Durable Goods Orders, October 2025

Q3's strength is unlikely to be sustained.

23 December 2025 US Monitor GDP growth likely to slow sharply from Q3's robust pace

• We think GDP grew by 3½% in Q3, underpinned by a solid increase in consumers’ spending. 
• AI-related capex likely also lifted fixed investment, while net trade made a big positive contribution too.
• But growth seems to have slowed sharply in Q4, mostly due to weakness among households.

December 2025 - US Economic Chartbook

THE PAUSE IN THE FED’S EASING CYCLE WILL BE BRIEF...

• ...THE LABOR MARKET WILL REMAIN WEAK, INFLATION FALL

PM Datanote: US Existing Home Sales, November 2025

Limited further upside for sales.

22 December 2025 US Monitor Birth-death model is only partly to blame for big benchmark revisions

• Only a small fraction of the big downward benchmark revision to payrolls is due to the birth-death model. 
• The sectoral mix of the revision implies benchmarking is removing only a few unauthorized workers.
• The main problem—still unresolved—is the BLS is not obtaining a representative sample of firms.

19 December 2025 US Monitor November CPI data strain credulity, but the outlook is tranquil

• Measurement issues depressed November goods prices, airline fares, rent and auto insurance....
• ...We see no evidence of a slowing in the trend in core-core services prices yet.
• But the outlook looks benign; tariffs are now mostly passed through, while wages and rents are slowing.

PM Datanote: US S&P Global Composite PMI, December 2025

The implied jump in services inflation makes little sense.

PM Datanote: US Retail Sales, October 2025

October's strength in control sales looks unlikely to last.

PM Datanote: US Employment, November 2025

Lackluster, but not alarming enough for a January easing.

18 December 2025 US Monitor Is the NFIB survey's signal of rising hiring intentions credible?

• The NFIB survey’s hiring intentions index increased in November to its highest level since May 2023... 
• ...But first estimates of private payrolls have undershot its implied level by 50K on average since Q1.
• The regional Fed surveys and the Census Bureau’s biweekly business survey show weaker hiring plans.

17 December 2025 US Monitor Undesirably high unemployment to remain the Fed's main worry in 2026

• Private payrolls are no longer slowing and the jump in unemployment was mostly due to the shutdown.
• Unemployment ex-temporary layoffs, however, is above its pre-Covid norm, and wider slack is building.
• Some indicators of hiring indicators have improved recently, but layoff plans also have picked up.

PM Datanote: US NAHB Housing Market Index, December 2025

Likely a high watermark for now.

PM Datanote: US Empire State Manufacturing Survey, December 2025

Manufacturing capex and hiring likely to remain very weak

16 December 2025 US Monitor November CPI data unlikely to ruin the festive mood

• Core CPI inflation likely fell to 2.9% in November, slightly below consensus, from 3.0% in September.
• Auto prices have remained unaffected by tariffs; increases in other goods prices have slowed.
• The rebound in airline fares probably has petered out; rent increases likely continue to slow gradually. 

15 December 2025 US Monitor November employment report to sustain pressure on the Fed to ease

• We expect a first estimate of a mere 50K rise in November payrolls, despite slightly better surveys...
• ...Retailers have hired relatively few seasonal workers; the upward bias in the first estimate should be mild.
• The unemployment rate likely ticked up to 4.5% in November, from 4.4% in October.

PM Datanote: US Employment Cost Index, Q3 2025

Much weaker wage growth likely lies ahead.

12 December 2025 US Monitor Weak October retail sales likely to set the tone for Q4

• We think retail sales dropped by a hefty 0.7% in October, dragged down by a big fall in auto sales. 
• A raft of indicators suggest that consumers’ spending will grow at a negligible pace in Q4. 
• The Thanksgiving week drop in continuing claims is a seasonal fluke; the trend remains upwards.

11 December 2025 US Monitor Expect a brief skip in the Fed's easing cycle, not a long hiatus

The dots imply three regional Fed presidents who will
vote in 2026 disagreed with this meeting’s easing...

...But we reckon all the permanent voters expect to
ease in 2026; labor data will trigger March action.

Year-over-year growth in the ECI was stable at 3.6%
in Q3, but leading indicators signal a sharp fall soon.