May 2025 - US Economic Chartbook

STAGNATION AHEAD, AS THE TARIFFS HIT REAL INCOMES…

• …THE FED WILL START EASING IN Q3 AS PAYROLL GAINS SLOW

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

21 April 2025 US Monitor Few alarms yet in high-frequency data; business surveys weaker

• Timely data suggest consumers’ spending has held up well in the immediate aftermath of April 2.
• Few obvious tariff-induced cracks have yet appeared in the labor market either.
• But the latest regional Fed manufacturing surveys point to a slump in orders and much higher prices.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

April 2025 - US Economic Chartbook

STAGNATION AHEAD, AS THE TARIFFS HIT REAL INCOMES…

• …THE FED WILL EASE MATERIALLY, DESPITE RISING INFLATION

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

18 February 2025 US Monitor January's weak retail sales due to much more than just bad weather

• Adverse weather likely explains only part of the steep drop in retail sales in January.
• The rush of spending on durable goods in anticipation of new tariffs already is showing signs of fading.
• …That sets the stage for much slower growth in consumers’ spending in Q1.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US