US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Chartbook Weekly Monitor
JANUARY PAYROLLS ARE JUST A FLASH IN THE PAN...
- ...SLOW JOB GAINS & LOWER INFLATION WILL SPUR EASING
- The rise in the unadjusted January core CPI was similar to typical increases in the late 2010s.
- Used auto prices will rebound, but increases for goods ex-autos will slow after January’s one-time hikes.
- New rents are now barely rising, signalling a substantial fall in CPI shelter inflation over the next year.
- We look for a 0.2% increase in the headline CPI and a 0.3% rise in the core, despite residual seasonality.
- Web-scraped data point to slowing durable goods prices; Winter Storm Fern likely hit clothing prices.
- Increases in prices for streaming services, live events and rent likely were all much smaller than a year ago.
- Keeping Mr. Trump, Senators and markets all on-side for three months will be no easy task for Mr. Warsh.
- If he is confirmed, the President might need to use Mr. Miran’s seat on the Board, resulting in no dovish shift.
- Mr. Warsh claims monetary policy alone determines inflation; he’s boxed in if it doesn’t fall this year.
THE ECONOMY IS UNLIKELY TO ACCELERATE IN H1...
- ...PAYROLLS WILL STAY SLUGGISH; HOUSEHOLD SAVING RISE
- The Fed will leave rates on hold this week, but three members will vote to ease again...
- ...And key members will place more weight on the further slowdown in payrolls than robust GDP.
- We still expect rising unemployment to spur easing in H1, but major personnel changes now look less likely.
- US import prices rose by three percentage points less than global import prices in the year to October.
- Foreign manufacturers of autos and alcoholic drinks have slashed prices to remain competitive.
- Auto manufacturers will rebuild margins in 2026, but other supply chains will adapt to cut tariff exposure.
- The trend in payrolls is unlikely to improve in Q1; catch-up growth in healthcare jobs is now over...
- ...And December’s jump in leisure and hospitality payrolls looks set to unwind, just like a year ago.
- The sharp rise in involuntary part-time working is a red flag, signaling that layoffs will pick up in Q1.
- We look for a modest 75K rise in payrolls and a small fall in the unemployment rate to 4.5% in December.
- Retailers and hospitality firms hired cautiously; consumers continue to report worsening job availability.
- The FOMC still looks likely to pause in January, but the case for easing again will be robust by March.
THE PAUSE IN THE FED’S EASING CYCLE WILL BE BRIEF...
- ...THE LABOR MARKET WILL REMAIN WEAK, INFLATION FALL
- Only a small fraction of the big downward benchmark revision to payrolls is due to the birth-death model.
- The sectoral mix of the revision implies benchmarking is removing only a few unauthorized workers.
- The main problem—still unresolved—is the BLS is not obtaining a representative sample of firms.
- We expect a first estimate of a mere 50K rise in November payrolls, despite slightly better surveys...
- ...Retailers have hired relatively few seasonal workers; the upward bias in the first estimate should be mild.
- The unemployment rate likely ticked up to 4.5% in November, from 4.4% in October.
- Spending rose by 2.7% in Q3, but the stagnation in September likely foreshadows a very weak Q4.
- Real incomes are barely rising, and many near-real time indicators point to a sharp slowdown in growth.
- Q1 likely will be weak too, but bumper tax refunds and a pick-up in hiring will support a Q2 revival.
- The average effective tariff rate is currently just 12%, far short of the near-20% widely expected in spring.
- China imports have dived; more imports than expected from Canada and Mexico are USMCA-compliant.
- The plunge in the Cass Freight Index looks alarming, but it probably is overstating weakness in industry.
EXPECT AN EXTENDED FED EASING CYCLE...
- ...DRIVEN BY A WEAK LABOR MARKET AND FALLING INFLATION
- Growth in average hourly earnings is resilient because fewer entry level workers are being hired...
- ...Rising unemployment, the low quits rate and a wide range of surveys all point to an underlying slowdown.
- The NY Fed’s Williams still sees room to ease policy “...in the near term”, bolstering our December call.
- Retailers usually pass on the bulk of any cost increases to consumers, but bank most of any savings.
- Retailers won’t cut prices only to hike them again if the White House reimposes tariffs via other routes.
- The AI stock sell-off is small so far, but a deeper rout would have a tangible impact on GDP growth.
- Comparing November’s UoM survey to its historical range overstates the depth of consumer gloom...
- ...But the massive deterioration in major purchase plans this year is too big to simply brush aside.
- Small businesses are bearing down on wage growth; pay rises of just 3% will be the norm next year.
THE INFLATION OUTLOOK HAS IMPROVED...
- ...WHILE HIRING REMAINS DEPRESSED; MORE EASING AHEAD
- Continuing claims have returned to their rising trend; Homebase and Indeed data are also weakening.
- Bloomberg Second Measure and Redbook data point to retail sales losing momentum last month.
- Airline passenger numbers have picked up, but hotel room occupancy is now 2pp lower than a year ago.
