US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Plunging response rate raises big questions about reliability.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Adobe's Digital Price Index suggests some goods prices rose in June at the fastest pace since 2023.
- Primary rent probably rose at an above-trend pace in June, while airline fares likely stopped falling.
- Residual seasonality continues to blight the services price data; expect a bigger rise in June than in May.
Samuel TombsUS
- Exemptions and sector-specific tariffs cover most imports from Japan, leaving the “reciprocal” rate irrelevant.
- Raising the reciprocal rate of EU imports to 50% would boost the US CPI by nearly 1/2%, but a deal is likely.
- The NY Fed survey continues to paint a far more upbeat picture than the other major consumer surveys.
Samuel TombsUS
- Capex rose in 2017-to-18 after the introduction of 100% bonus depreciation, but it was not the key driver.
- Tapering bonus depreciation in 2023 and 2024 left capex unscathed; firms are now worried about tariffs.
- Average hourly earnings growth is often volatile, but the recent slowdown has been flagged by surveys too.
Samuel TombsUS
- June private payrolls ex-education and healthcare rose just 23K; revisions will reveal an even weaker picture.
- Hiring intentions remain depressed; new tax breaks are unlikely to offset tariff costs and uncertainty soon.
- The drop in unemployment looks like noise; payroll growth will undershoot the break-even rate in H2.
Samuel TombsUS
A big jump in services inflation still looks unlikely.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Implausible sector breakdown highlights ADP's uselessness.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Supply-side disruptions giving way to weak demand.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The average effective tariff rate will rise by a further 6pp next week, if no new trade deals are signed.
- But we doubt these additional tariffs will last; retaliation by trade partners will spur another climbdown.
- The construction slump signals weaker growth in activity and employment, but likely not a recession
Samuel TombsUS
- Rising JOLTS job openings are driven by hospitality firms rehiring to comply with employment laws...
- ...Measurement problems also boosting the numbers; large downward revisions are now common.
- Tariff revenues currently equal 10% of the value of imports, but the effective tariff rate likely is higher.
Samuel TombsUS
- The abundance of weak surveys points to a 100K first estimate for June payrolls.
- Downward revisions to estimated payrolls in April and May also are likely.
- Scraps of evidence suggest late responses from struggling small businesses explains the pattern.
Samuel TombsUS
- Spending fell by 0.3% in May, with little chance of a June rebound, and further weakness likely in Q3.
- The 0.4% fall in May incomes was due to one-time factors, but real income growth is set to stagnate.
- The core PCE deflator surprised to the upside in May, but the 0.18% rise will pale in comparison to June.
Samuel TombsUS
GDP on course for a misleading jump in Q2.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
IMay slump brings sales back to reality.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- We look for a below-consensus 0.2% decline in real expenditure in May...
- ...One-time factors likely drove the drop, but the Q3 outlook for real after-tax income growth is bleak.
- 3% GDP growth looks likely in Q2, as the unwinding of tariff distortions obscures underlying weakness.
Samuel TombsUS
Inflation expectations dropping back, labor market still weakening.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Mr. Powell refrained from providing lawmakers with triggers and timings for the intended policy easing in H2...
- ...But 2024’s small upside unemployment surprise drove a rapid pivot; expect a repeat, despite the tariffs.
- GDPNow’s 3.4% projection for Q2 growth looks about right; underlying momentum is about half that figure.
Samuel TombsUS
- Homebase data point to a mere 100K rise in June payrolls; Conference Board data point to even worse.
- No other reliable indicators of payroll growth are due to be released, so we likely will maintain our 100K forecast.
- The April surge in new home sales looks very fishy: we expect a slump in May.
Samuel TombsUS
Sales likely to continue to stagnate.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- S&P reports brisk employment growth in June, but itsindex has been a very poor guide to payrolls since 2023.
- The output price index signals an implausibly large pick- up in core goods CPI inflation ahead.
- The unwinding of a one-time uplift to Social Security payments probably dragged on income growth in May.
Samuel TombsUS
