US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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- Recent falls in oil prices and shipping costs will offset about one quarter of the tariff boost to inflation.
- The $10 fall in WTI oil prices, however, also points to a 0.1% hit to GDP via lower business investment.
- The fall in financial wealth is consistent with households’ spending undershooting its trend by 0.7%.
Samuel TombsUS
Healthcare driving payroll growth again; ongoing support will offset some tariff damage.
Samuel TombsUS
- The stock price drawdown is historically consistent with a 1% fall in payrolls, but slow gains are more likely.
- Most services firms have little exposure to tariffs; leading indicators of hiring are weak, not on the floor.
- The healthcare sector will remain a jobs juggernaut; falling manufacturing payrolls will drag modestly.
Samuel TombsUS
ADP distracts more than it informs.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The average effective tariff rate will jump to 22%, from 3%, if Mr. Trump follows through on his plans.
- We now look for a tariff uplift to the core PCE deflator of about 1¼%, half a point more than our prior assumption.
- The outlook for capex and exports is worse too, but fiscal and monetary policy can offset some damage.
Samuel TombsUS
Tariff uncertainty is weighing on manufacturing.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Border Patrol encounters have fallen to zero, but unauthorized immigration likely will rebound soon.
- ICE arrests have risen only slightly; the hit to labor force growth so far is modest.
- A shrinking wage growth premium for job switchers suggests lower core services inflation ahead.
Samuel TombsUS
- Headline payrolls likely rose about 140K in March, with private payrolls up by roughly 125K.
- Ignore the upbeat NFIB survey; Conference Board, Indeed and regional Fed data point to a slowdown.
- Continuing claims data point to a stable unemployment rate, but WARN filings point to a rise ahead.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Clear signs of an underlying consumer slowdown.
Samuel TombsUS
- GDP looks set to grow at a mere 1% pace in Q1, following February’s weak consumption data.
- Fading pre-tariff frontrunning, however, explains the slowdown; core services spending is still rising.
- Tariffs will weigh on real income growth by less than 1%; recession remains unlikely.
Samuel TombsUS
Sales likely to remain in the doldrums.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Gold trade and pre-tariff stockpiling are distorting the numbers.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Equipment investment likely to remain anemic at best.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Today’s PCE report likely will show a rebound in real consumption and a 0.4% rise in the core deflator.
- Threatened auto tariffs would likely raise the core price level by 0.2-to-0.4percentage points.
- Soaring gold imports imply a much smaller drag on Q1 GDP from net trade than headline data suggest.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Reeling from the tariff threats.
Samuel TombsUS
- Regional Fed surveys suggest that services sector activity, hiring and investment is slowing sharply.
- The message on inflation is mixed, but firms expect their pricing power to wane.
- February’s orders report provides further signs the recovery in equipment investment is already fading.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The consumer surveys have deteriorated sharply, but probably overstate the incoming slowdown.
- Air passenger numbers are 4% below their peak, matching the drawdown before the 2001 recession...
- ...But similar declines also were seen in 2005 and 2006, without recession immediately ensuing.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Markets pulled back expectations for Fed easing, after the recovery in the composite PMI in March...
- ...But the survey also signalled declining margins in manufacturing, and lower services inflation.
- New home sales likely revived in February after adverse weather, but renewed weakness lies ahead.
Samuel TombsUS
