PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims, June 7

More to the uptick in claims than residual seasonality.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey, May

Sentiment up from the April lows, but small businesses remain under pressure.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US ISM Services Survey, May

We doubt services inflation will reaccelerate sharply.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US ADP Employment, May

More noise than signal.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

5 June 2025 US Monitor The downward trend in construction spending has further to run

• Construction spending has dropped significantly in recent months, a trend we expect to continue…
• …Falling spending points to small but sustained declines in construction payrolls ahead.
• Auto sales plunged by 9.4% in May, signalling the broader wave of pre-tariff purchases is now fading.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US ISM Manufacturing Survey, May

Manufacturing remains under pressure.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims, May 24

Cracks starting to show in the labor market.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Advance Goods Trade, April

Net trade and inventories on course for a big combined boost to headline GDP in Q2.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Personal Income & Spending, April

Consumption still resilient, but a slowdown looms.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Pending Home Sales, April

Tariff uncertainty comes for the housing market.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

30 May 2025 US Monitor April PCE release comes too early to capture much of the tariff shock

• We look for a 0.1% uptick in real consumers’ spending in April, and a 0.12% rise in the core PCE deflator.
• Q1 GDP growth probably still is being understated, but the economy was losing momentum nonetheless.
• The court ruling against the Trump tariffs looks unlikely to derail the administration’s trade agenda.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

29 May 2025 US Monitor Services sector set for weaker growth in activity, but limited inflation

• The regional Fed surveys suggest services sector growth in slowing rather than collapsing...
• ...But employment growth in many services industries probably will be much weaker in Q3.  
• Limited services inflation and wage growth will allow the Fed to respond with easier policy, eventually.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Consumer Confidence, May

Consumers breathe a sigh of relief, but the labor market still is softening.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Durable Goods Orders, April

Equipment investment is set to fall sharply.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US S&P Global Composite PMI, May

Economy robust in the face of tariff uncertainty for now.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

May 2025 - US Economic Chartbook

STAGNATION AHEAD, AS THE TARIFFS HIT REAL INCOMES…

• …THE FED WILL START EASING IN Q3 AS PAYROLL GAINS SLOW

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

22 May 2025 US Monitor Weak air travel numbers are little cause for alarm, for now

• The marked weakness in airline passenger numbers partly reflects a dive in inbound tourism. 
• Most other near-real time indicators of consumers’ spending remain relatively resilient. 
• Existing home sales probably remained depressed in April; a meaningful recovery still is some way off.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Michigan Sentiment Survey, May

 Extremely low response rate and partisan divide raise questions over reliability.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US NAHB Housing Market Index, May

 Pointing to a sharp fall in new home sales & residential construction.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Retail Sales/Weekly Jobless Claims

Further weakness probably lies in store.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US