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15th Jun 2026 16:27UKDaily Monitor
  • We extend our analysis of gilt spreads over peers to Treasuries and models of daily changes in yields.
  • Our models suggest that UK political risk yields are adding 9-to-19bp to 10y gilt-bund spreads.
  • The boost to yields from replacing Sir Keir Starmer would offset the impact of a roughly 20% oil price fall.

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Keywords for: 17 June 2026 UK Monitor

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence