UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Weekly Monitor Samuel Tombs
- We estimate the Chancellor’s headroom for tax cuts will double to £25bn, mainly due to lower debt interest costs.
- The Chancellor will likely use most of that headroom for personal tax cuts and revving up the housing market.
- Markets will assume the next government will hike taxes to return government finances to a sustainable path.
Samuel TombsUK
- Smooth out the huge noise in December and January retail sales and the trend is improving.
- Sales volumes rose 1.5% between October and January, as falling inflation boosted consumer spending power.
- In 2024, we expect real wages to rise the most in 17 years, propelling the UK out of recession.
Samuel TombsUK
- We think the headline rate of CPI inflation rose merely to 4.1% in January, from 4.0% in December...
- ...But services inflation likely leapt by 0.5pp to 6.9%; January 2023’s fall in the catering CPI likely wasn’t repeated.
- Our services inflation forecast exceeds the MPC’s, but it would still point to slowing near-term momentum.
Samuel TombsUK
- The outlook for real household disposable income has continued to improve...
- ...Energy prices have fallen and wage growth is moderating slowly; expect further tax cuts in the Budget.
- We still expect the MPC to cut rates by 75bp in 2024— markets nearly agree—but the risk of fewer cuts has risen.
Samuel TombsUK
- People’s optimism in their personal financial outlook recovered in January to its long-run average.
- Confidence isn’t always a reliable spending bellwether, though there’s little reason to expect it to mislead now.
- Governments, however, don’t always get the credit for improving economies, as the Tories discovered in 1997.
Samuel TombsUK
- Retail sales fell by 0.9% q/q in Q4, but spending on services fared better; total spending likely fell only slightly.
- We judge households have finished re-accumulating the savings buffer they lost in 2022...
- ...So brisk growth in real disposable income this year should filter through to spending; the MPC won't panic.
Samuel TombsUK
- GDP is on course to drop marginally in Q4, despite the rebound in November...
- ...The composite PMI picked up in December, but the retail, construction and health sectors all likely struggled.
- A recovery, however, should take hold soon; we look for 0.7% year-over-year growth in GDP in 2024.
Samuel TombsUK
- The composite PMI rose in December to a six-month high; consumers’ confidence is near a two-year high.
- This pick-up reflects rising real household disposable income, and possibly slowing savings replenishment.
- The MPC, however, needn’t stay very restrictive; the job market is loosening, and inflation pressures are fading.
Samuel TombsUK
- Recent CPI inflation and wage data have undershot the MPC’s expectations...
- ...and it will judge that sterling’s appreciation will offset the boost to inflation from lower rate expectations.
- But Mr. Bailey has repeatedly pushed back against the fall in rate expectations; don’t expect a dovish tone yet.
Samuel TombsUK
- CPI inflation likely fell to 4.4% in November, from 4.6% in October, remaining 0.2pp below the MPC’s forecast.
- BRC and Eurozone data both point to further falls in food and core goods CPI inflation.
- Motor fuel CPI inflation also declined in November; surveys point to slowing service price rises too.
Samuel TombsUK
- Household disposable income will receive a 0.6pp boost from tax and benefit changes in the 2024/25 fiscal year.
- The drag on disposable income growth from mortgage refinancing looks set to halve in 2024.
- Many households intend to save more, but saving already is higher than normal; real spending will pick up next year.
Samuel TombsUK
- Retail sales fell for the second straight month in October, though that partly reflected the warmer, wetter weather.
- But real incomes look set to recover, as pay growth outstrips CPI inflation and cost-of-living grants resume.
- Some of this extra cash will be saved, but people will be able to spend more too; retail sales will recover in Q4.
Samuel TombsUK
- GDP would have fallen in Q3, if the volatile net trade and inventories components hadn’t support growth...
- ...But growth in real household disposable income will pick up in Q4, enabling both more spending and saving.
- Business investment was in line with pre-Covid norms despite falling in Q3; surveys signal continued resilience.
Samuel TombsUK
