UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Weekly Monitor
- Retail sales ended Q1 with a whimper, stagnating in March as department-store sales tanked.
- Look through the month-to-month volatility though, and retail sales growth is trending up.
- We still expect the MPC to cut Bank Rate in June, after Governor Bailey downplayed the inflation miss.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We raise our growth forecast, and now expect a 0.4% quarter-to-quarter GDP gain in Q1.
- Returning growth won’t stop the MPC cutting rates but will keep it to a one-cut-per-quarter pace.
- The MPC switching to scenarios, from fan charts, post Bernanke Review likely matters little to markets.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect quarter-to-quarter GDP growth to average 0.3% this year, driven by rising household real income.
- Energy-price cuts will pull inflation below 2% in Q2; sticky services will return inflation above 2% in Q4.
- We expect the MPC gradually to ease its restrictive policy, with the first cut in June and 75bp total in 2024.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Revised data still show a minor recession last year, but it’s an even smaller 0.4% cumulative GDP fall.
- The recession was driven by rising saving, as consumers worried about energy bills and interest rates.
- The saving rate won’t increase further from its elevated level, so consumption can recover in 2024.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Consumers’ confidence in their personal financial situation rose to a 28-month high in March.
- Retail sales beat the consensus in February, staying on track for a 1.7% quarter-to-quarter gain in Q1.
- We expect quarter-to-quarter GDP growth in Q1 to comfortably exceed the MPC’s 0.1% forecast.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect the Bernanke review, due in April, to recommend three changes to MPC communication.
- These are: to publish interest rate projections, switch to a staff forecast and make more use of scenarios.
- This will cause volatility, as markets learn about the new communication, likely implemented in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect household real income to rise 2.2% year-over-year in 2024...
- ...As real wage growth stays strong, and Chancellor Hunt’s tax cuts add 0.8pp.
- A falling saving rate will help too; consumption should rise 0.5% quarter-to-quarter through 2024.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We remain optimistic about GDP this year, expecting quarter-to-quarter growth to average 0.3%.
- Energy-price falls will lower inflation below 2% in Q2, supporting the real wage outlook.
- We expect the MPC to lower rates by 75bp in 2024, but sticky services inflation could delay the first cut.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We estimate the Chancellor’s headroom for tax cuts will double to £25bn, mainly due to lower debt interest costs.
- The Chancellor will likely use most of that headroom for personal tax cuts and revving up the housing market.
- Markets will assume the next government will hike taxes to return government finances to a sustainable path.
Samuel TombsUK
- Smooth out the huge noise in December and January retail sales and the trend is improving.
- Sales volumes rose 1.5% between October and January, as falling inflation boosted consumer spending power.
- In 2024, we expect real wages to rise the most in 17 years, propelling the UK out of recession.
Samuel TombsUK
- We think the headline rate of CPI inflation rose merely to 4.1% in January, from 4.0% in December...
- ...But services inflation likely leapt by 0.5pp to 6.9%; January 2023’s fall in the catering CPI likely wasn’t repeated.
- Our services inflation forecast exceeds the MPC’s, but it would still point to slowing near-term momentum.
Samuel TombsUK
- The outlook for real household disposable income has continued to improve...
- ...Energy prices have fallen and wage growth is moderating slowly; expect further tax cuts in the Budget.
- We still expect the MPC to cut rates by 75bp in 2024— markets nearly agree—but the risk of fewer cuts has risen.
Samuel TombsUK
- People’s optimism in their personal financial outlook recovered in January to its long-run average.
- Confidence isn’t always a reliable spending bellwether, though there’s little reason to expect it to mislead now.
- Governments, however, don’t always get the credit for improving economies, as the Tories discovered in 1997.
Samuel TombsUK
- Retail sales fell by 0.9% q/q in Q4, but spending on services fared better; total spending likely fell only slightly.
- We judge households have finished re-accumulating the savings buffer they lost in 2022...
- ...So brisk growth in real disposable income this year should filter through to spending; the MPC won't panic.
Samuel TombsUK
- GDP is on course to drop marginally in Q4, despite the rebound in November...
- ...The composite PMI picked up in December, but the retail, construction and health sectors all likely struggled.
- A recovery, however, should take hold soon; we look for 0.7% year-over-year growth in GDP in 2024.
Samuel TombsUK
- Net migration has jumped over the past two years, following a sharp drop in 2020 and 2021.
- The government estimates that this year’s policy changes will reduce immigration by 25%...
- ...But Skilled Worker visa numbers won’t fall by much, and total arrivals will spike in Q1, before the rules change.
UK
- The economy flirted with recession in 2023, but green shoots emerged towards the end of the year.
- A sharp fall in energy prices suggests CPI inflation will continue to fall quickly, probably touching 2% during Q2.
- Markets' interest rate expectations, however, have fallen too far; we still think the MPC will wait until May.
UK
- The composite PMI rose in December to a six-month high; consumers’ confidence is near a two-year high.
- This pick-up reflects rising real household disposable income, and possibly slowing savings replenishment.
- The MPC, however, needn’t stay very restrictive; the job market is loosening, and inflation pressures are fading.
Samuel TombsUK
- Recent CPI inflation and wage data have undershot the MPC’s expectations...
- ...and it will judge that sterling’s appreciation will offset the boost to inflation from lower rate expectations.
- But Mr. Bailey has repeatedly pushed back against the fall in rate expectations; don’t expect a dovish tone yet.
Samuel TombsUK
- CPI inflation likely fell to 4.4% in November, from 4.6% in October, remaining 0.2pp below the MPC’s forecast.
- BRC and Eurozone data both point to further falls in food and core goods CPI inflation.
- Motor fuel CPI inflation also declined in November; surveys point to slowing service price rises too.
Samuel TombsUK
