UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Weekly Monitor
- CPI inflation likely fell to 4.4% in November, from 4.6% in October, remaining 0.2pp below the MPC’s forecast.
- BRC and Eurozone data both point to further falls in food and core goods CPI inflation.
- Motor fuel CPI inflation also declined in November; surveys point to slowing service price rises too.
Samuel TombsUK
- Household disposable income will receive a 0.6pp boost from tax and benefit changes in the 2024/25 fiscal year.
- The drag on disposable income growth from mortgage refinancing looks set to halve in 2024.
- Many households intend to save more, but saving already is higher than normal; real spending will pick up next year.
Samuel TombsUK
- Retail sales fell for the second straight month in October, though that partly reflected the warmer, wetter weather.
- But real incomes look set to recover, as pay growth outstrips CPI inflation and cost-of-living grants resume.
- Some of this extra cash will be saved, but people will be able to spend more too; retail sales will recover in Q4.
Samuel TombsUK
- GDP would have fallen in Q3, if the volatile net trade and inventories components hadn’t support growth...
- ...But growth in real household disposable income will pick up in Q4, enabling both more spending and saving.
- Business investment was in line with pre-Covid norms despite falling in Q3; surveys signal continued resilience.
Samuel TombsUK
- PMI data signal a mild recession, but we still expect brisk real income growth to lift households’ spending in Q4.
- We have nudged up our forecast for CPI inflation in 2024 to 3.0%, from 2.7%, due to higher energy prices...
- ...But it is still below the MPC’s latest projection; down- side surprises will open the door to rate cuts from Q2.
UK
