UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist) Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)
- In one line: Still weak, but car sales should rebound next year.
UK
- The composite PMI topped 50 in November for the first time since July and is likely understating GDP growth.
- S&P’s bespoke seasonal adjustment process is depressing the PMI; public-sector output will rise in Q4.
- S&P’s survey also signals slowing service price rises and flat employment; a May Bank Rate cut is still in play.
UK
- In one line: Manufacturing output is being hit by retailers running down their inventories.
UK
- In one line: Don’t get too excited about the prospect of a sustained recovery just yet,
UK
- In one line: A rebound in real incomes will drive a recovery in confidence.
UK
- In one line: The Q3 recovery in manufacturing output looks set to reverse.
UK
- In one line: We expect a recovery in the coming months, driven by a rebound in real incomes.
UK
- The official house price index in September was only 0.7% below its November 2022 peak...
- ...but the first estimate usually is revised down by 1%, and Q3’s rise in mortgage rates hasn’t impacted the data yet.
- The better outlook for mortgage rates, however, hints prices in Q1 will stabilise at 5%, not 6%, below their peak.
UK
- In one line: Casts doubt on the increases in the Nationwide and Halifax measures of house prices.
UK
- On balance, survey indicators suggest payroll employee numbers merely held steady in October...
- ...This implies the claimant count rose, given further workforce growth, but it is an imperfect unemployment gauge.
- Month-to-month growth in average weekly wages likely slowed in September, despite public-sector pay deals.
UK
- In one line: Another weak month, but car sales should rebound next year.
UK
- PMI data signal a mild recession, but we still expect brisk real income growth to lift households’ spending in Q4.
- We have nudged up our forecast for CPI inflation in 2024 to 3.0%, from 2.7%, due to higher energy prices...
- ...But it is still below the MPC’s latest projection; down- side surprises will open the door to rate cuts from Q2.
UK
- In one line: Not the start of a recovery, yet.
UK
- CPI inflation likely fell sharply in October, driven chiefly by the energy component...
- ...but BRC and Eurozone data are consistent with further declines in food and core goods CPI inflation too.
- Our headline rate forecast, 4.6%, is 0.3pp below the MPC’s, but is subject to revision as more data come in.
UK
- In one line: Mortgage lending remains weak.
UK
