UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Daily Monitor Datanotes Samuel Tombs
- The fall in the LFS measure of unemployment in H2 is inconsistent with indicators of improving staff availability.
- The risk of non-response bias is very high; just 15% of approached households participated in the LFS in Q4.
- Ex-bonus wages rose 4.0% month-to-month annual- ised in December, but revisions might alter the picture.
Samuel TombsUK
- We look for a below-consensus 1.3% month-to-month rise in January retail sales...
- ...Surveys were very weak, and December’s sharp drop might be revised smaller, reducing scope for a rebound.
- Sticky energy payments might explain some of the gap between rising real disposable income and spending.
Samuel TombsUK
- Most labour demand indicators have weakened a bit further, so employee numbers were likely flat in January.
- LFS data remain of poor quality; the unemployment rate is probably slightly higher than the current data suggest.
- We expect a 0.4% month-to-month rise in ex-bonus AWE in December, still inconsistent with the inflation target.
Samuel TombsUK
- We think GDP dropped by 0.3% month-to-month in December, contributing to a 0.1% quarter-to-quarter fall.
- Stormy weather likely disrupted construction output; strikes weighed on output in the health sector.
- News of a mild recession, however, won’t take the MPC’s attention away from the risk of ingrained high inflation.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Strengthening recovery will allow the MPC to take its time.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Optimism improving as lower borrowing costs start to underpin demand.
Samuel TombsUK
- CPI inflation likely rose to 4.1% in January, from 4.0% in December, mainly due to base effects.
- BRC data point to a plunge in core goods CPI inflation, though the relatively early Index Day will limit the decline.
- The MPC expects the headline rate to rise slightly, but the scale of the jump in services inflation will surprise it.
Samuel TombsUK
- The ONS now estimates the headline unemployment rate fell to 3.9% in November, from 4.2% in August...
- ...But it still hasn’t addressed the collapse in the LFS response rate; other data point to rising unemployment.
- Hidden slack also increased in H2; the number of inactive people wanting work rose, while average hours fell.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Downward revision to unemployment rate increases pressure on the MPC to wait.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Supply chain disruptions threaten to compound the demand-driven downturn in output.
Samuel TombsUK
- Lingering votes to hike Bank Rate distract from most members’ endorsement of rate cuts this year...
- ...Two-year-ahead inflation is forecast nearer 2% under market rates than constant rates; upside skew has gone.
- We still expect the first 25bp cut to come in May, but the risks remain tilted towards a later commencement.
Samuel TombsUK
- New population estimates will likely raise the Chancellor’s room for tax cuts by £5B-to-£10B.
- The ONS has raised its forecast for growth in the working age population to 1.0% y/y over 2023-2029, from 0.6%.
- We think the OBR will respond by lifting its forecast for year-over-year growth in potential GDP by about 0.1pp.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Households won’t stay this cautious for long.
Samuel TombsUK
- The pick-up in liquid assets despite meagre net borrowing implies households chose to save more in late 2023.
- Savings in real terms might still be below trend, but they are better distributed among households than a year ago.
- Lower mortgage rates have triggered only a small rise in approvals to date, but they will continue to recover in Q1.
Samuel TombsUK
- Energy’s weight in the CPI will likely decline in 2024, limiting the impact of falling prices on the headline rate.
- On net, weight changes will have a downward influence on the headline rate of inflation in January of about 8bp...
- ...But will then raise the path from April, albeit by no more than 20bp in any one month in 2024.
Samuel TombsUK
- The MPC will slash its forecast for CPI inflation in 2024 after encouraging recent data and natural gas price falls.
- This revision will persuade the hawks to join the majority, but concerns about the medium-term outlook will linger.
- The MPC will try to counter market pricing for swift rate cuts by forecasting above-2% inflation two-years ahead.
Samuel TombsUK
- Public borrowing is on course to undershoot the OBR’s forecast for 2023/24 by about £5B.
- ‘Fiscal headroom’ is a distraction; Mr. Hunt will cut taxes as much as he can without jeopardising MPC rate cuts.
- We expect Budget tax cuts of £20B in 2024/25, but some people might save the windfall, fearing tax hikes soon.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Falling interest payments create scope for tax cuts which the gilt market can tolerate.
Samuel TombsUK
- Vacancies are falling and redundancies are grinding higher; still no big shifts, but February is a key month.
- The OBR’s medium-term RPI inflation forecast is too low; a reappraisal would limit the rise in fiscal headroom.
- Markets’ willingness to absorb extra issuance is the main constraint on tax cuts; Mr. Hunt won’t push it too far.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Slowing trend in the all-items index maintained, despite December’s rebound.
Samuel TombsUK
