UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- In one line: Another weak month, but car sales should rebound next year.
UK
- In one line: Labour and raw material costs are starting to fall, as demand undershoots supply.
Samuel TombsUK
- PMI data signal a mild recession, but we still expect brisk real income growth to lift households’ spending in Q4.
- We have nudged up our forecast for CPI inflation in 2024 to 3.0%, from 2.7%, due to higher energy prices...
- ...But it is still below the MPC’s latest projection; down- side surprises will open the door to rate cuts from Q2.
UK
In one line: Still pointing to a mild recession, but the survey is probably too downbeat.
Samuel TombsUK
- The MPC’s forecasts imply it doesn’t expect to cut Bank Rate next year, even as modestly as markets expect...
- ...But Mr. Bailey downplayed the forecasts, and the pledge tokeeprates“restrictive” stillleavesroomforcuts.
- We expect services CPI inflation in Q4 to undershoot the MPC’s forecast, easing concerns about upside risks.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: New forecasts signal no rate cuts in 2024, but the MPC won’t be bound by them.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: The destocking process which is weighing on manufacturing output has further to run.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Not the start of a recovery, yet.
UK
- The NLW looks set to rise by about 7% next April, while the Real Living Wage has just been increased by 10%.
- Fewer people than last year, however, are paid the NLW, and supermarkets may shrink their premium to the NLW.
- Now ample labour market slack will bear down on pay rises offered to the bulk of employees not on the NLW.
Samuel TombsUK
- CPI inflation likely fell sharply in October, driven chiefly by the energy component...
- ...but BRC and Eurozone data are consistent with further declines in food and core goods CPI inflation too.
- Our headline rate forecast, 4.6%, is 0.3pp below the MPC’s, but is subject to revision as more data come in.
UK