Pantheon Macroeconomics

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UK Publications

Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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Weekly Monitor

10 February 2025 UK Monitor Week in review: hawkish cut from the MPC

  • We still expect three rate cuts in total this year—two more—after the surprisingly dovish MPC voted to cut.
  • Vote splits are a poor guide to subsequent decisions, while the MPC’s inflation forecast was hawkish.
  • We expect Catherine Mann to explain this week that she was calling for a one-off rate adjustment.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

3 February 2025 UK Monitor Forecast review: 2025 growth down and inflation up as tax hikes bite

  • Payroll-tax hikes are driving growth down and inflation up to a greater extent than we expected.
  • We cut our 2025 GDP forecast to 1.1% year-over-year, from 1.3%, but raise inflation by 10bp to 3.1%.
  • We retain our long-held call for three cuts to Bank Rate in 2025, with the first coming on Thursday.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

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U.K. Document Vault, independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence,