- GDP growth soared in February as industrial production and services activity rose higher…
- …But the ongoing global trade war has made incoming data obsolete.
- The MPC will be challenged by a broken trading environment and CPI at 3.5% in H2.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Jobs market passes the worst as prices and wages prove persistent.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Strengthening domestic spending can cushion the tariff blow.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The Construction sector will continue to recover as planning reforms and Government spending boost sentiment.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The initial response to US tariffs suggests the barriers are more disinflationary for the UK than most.
- Markets are understandably pricing downside growth tail-risks and the UK avoiding retaliation, for now.
- But we continue to think this tariff fandango will eventually prove to be a stagflationary shock.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Stamp duty changes halt house price inflation in March, but it will accelerate again.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Tariffs will keep manufacturing output falling for the forseeable future.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Growth recovered in Q4 as Budget uncertainty passed but President Trump’s tariff hammer hangs over the outlook.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The trade balance will remain weak as energy prices remain high and uncertainty prevails.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Retail sales continue their post-Budget rebound and will drive a growth recovery in Q1
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- UK consumers are finding their feet, and likely boosted Q1 GDP growth to 0.3% quarter-to-quarter.
- Stubborn inflation pressures will keep the MPC to only two more rate cuts this year.
- But President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ hangs over the outlook, posing major risks to growth and inflation.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Erratic items drag down inflation, underlying pressures remain stubborn.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House prices surge in January but the rush to beat higher stamp duty will fade.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Solid growth and strong price pressures means the MPC will have to be cautious.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Trade uncertainty will continue to weigh on manufacturing sentiment and activity.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Weak public finances mean spending cuts in the Spring Statement, taxes will rise in October.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Good fundamentals and bad news will continue to pull consumers’ confidence in opposing directions.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We are comfortable forecasting only two more rate cuts this year after hawkish tweaks to MPC guidance.
- Employment continues to hold up relative to surveys, and pay growth is far too strong to deliver 2% inflation.
- Ms. Reeves can rectify OBR forecast changes with only small spending cuts, affecting the MPC little.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Slightly more cautious committee keeps an option to skip a quarterly cut.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK