Pantheon Macroeconomics

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UK Publications

Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Datanotes Weekly Monitor

14 April 2025 UK Monitor Week in review: GDP jumps in February but tariffs will hurt growth

  • GDP growth soared in February as industrial production and services activity rose higher…
  • …But the ongoing global trade war has made incoming data obsolete.
  • The MPC will be challenged by a broken trading environment and CPI at 3.5% in H2.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: Bank of England Decision Maker Panel, March 2025

  • In one line: Jobs market passes the worst as prices and wages prove persistent.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Final Services and Composite PMI, March 2025

  • In one line: Strengthening domestic spending can cushion the tariff blow.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: Construction PMI, March 2025

  • In one line: The Construction sector will continue to recover as planning reforms and Government spending boost sentiment.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Car Registrations, March 2025

  • In one line: 

    Car registrations will continue to rise despite ‘Liberation Day’ autos tariffs.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

7 April 2025 UK Monitor Week in review: the tariff war has commenced

  • The initial response to US tariffs suggests the barriers are more disinflationary for the UK than most.
  • Markets are understandably pricing downside growth tail-risks and the UK avoiding retaliation, for now.
  • But we continue to think this tariff fandango will eventually prove to be a stagflationary shock.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, March 2025

  • In one line: Stamp duty changes halt house price inflation in March, but it will accelerate again.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Final Manufacturing PMI, March 2025

  • In one line: Tariffs will keep manufacturing output falling for the forseeable future.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK National Accounts, Q4 2024

  • In one line: Growth recovered in Q4 as Budget uncertainty passed but President Trump’s tariff hammer hangs over the outlook.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK International Trade, January 2025

  • In one line: The trade balance will remain weak as energy prices remain high and uncertainty prevails.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: Retail Sales, February 2025

  • In one line:Retail sales continue their post-Budget rebound and will drive a growth recovery in Q1

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

31 March 2025 UK Monitor Forecast review: Shadow of tariffs hangs over improving economy

  • UK consumers are finding their feet, and likely boosted Q1 GDP growth to 0.3% quarter-to-quarter.
  • Stubborn inflation pressures will keep the MPC to only two more rate cuts this year.
  • But President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ hangs over the outlook, posing major risks to growth and inflation.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, February 2025

  • In one line: Erratic items drag down inflation, underlying pressures remain stubborn.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. Official House Price Index, January 2025

  • In one line: House prices surge in January but the rush to beat higher stamp duty will fade.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Flash PMIs, March 2025

  • In one line: Solid growth and strong price pressures means the MPC will have to be cautious.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, March 2025

  • In one line: Trade uncertainty will continue to weigh on manufacturing sentiment and activity.

Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Public Finances, February 2025

  • In one line:Weak public finances mean spending cuts in the Spring Statement, taxes will rise in October.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK GfK Consumers' Confidence Survey, March 2025

  • In one line: Good fundamentals and bad news will continue to pull consumers’ confidence in opposing directions.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

24 March 2025 UK Monitor Week in review: the MPC signals two more cuts this year

  • We are comfortable forecasting only two more rate cuts this year after hawkish tweaks to MPC guidance.
  • Employment continues to hold up relative to surveys, and pay growth is far too strong to deliver 2% inflation.
  • Ms. Reeves can rectify OBR forecast changes with only small spending cuts, affecting the MPC little.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK MPC Decision and Minutes, March 2025

  • In one line: Slightly more cautious committee keeps an option to skip a quarterly cut.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

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Keywords for: U.K. Documents

U.K. Document Vault, independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence,