UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor Weekly Monitor
- We expect GDP to fall 0.1% month-to-month in April, as tariff front-running unwinds.
- We still look for quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.3% in Q2, above the MPC’s projection, 0.1%.
- A resilient economy is supporting our call for just one more 25bp cut to Bank Rate this year.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Our early calculations suggest CPI inflation will fall only slightly in May, to 3.4%.
- Clothes, computer games, hotel prices and food should mostly offset a fall in travel prices.
- Duty hikes scheduled for 2026 will support headline inflation; we expect more duty hikes to be announced.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The tariff shock is fading and Q1 GDP beat consensus, so we raise our 2025 growth forecast to 1.3%.
- Inflation will hover around 3.4% for the rest of 2025, and drop below 3.0% again only next April.
- Easing uncertainty, elevated inflation and growth momentum mean just one more rate cut in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Our high neutral rate estimate of 3.75%-4.0% is one reason we expect only one more MPC rate cut.
- Elevated inflation expectations, especially for consumers, point to a high neutral rate.
- Slowing disinflation in 2025 also suggests that Bank Rate is only modestly restrictive now.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Hard data defy weak sentiment, bumping up our Q2 growth forecast to 0.3% quarter-to-quarter…
- …The uncertainty shock has faded, and inflation will likely stay above 3.0% until next April.
- So, we expect the MPC to skip an August cut, lowering rates only once more in 2025, in November.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Falling uncertainty as President Trump dialled back his more ruinous tariffs boosted the PMI in May.
- The PMI signals 0.3% q/q GDP growth once we adjust for the survey’s typical overreaction to uncertainty.
- The MPC will welcome easing price pressures but needs another month of data to confirm the trend.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Administered, government-set and indexed price hikes drove inflation up to 3.5% in April.
- Erratic factors added only modestly to inflation, so the MPC will have to take the headline seriously.
- Accumulated news—growth, lower tariffs, inflation—leads us to expect only one more rate cut this year.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Official house price inflation reached a 26-month high in February, at 5.4%, up from 4.8% in January.
- Momentum will dip temporarily as the stamp-duty distortion unwinds…
- ...But strong wage growth and falling interest rates should still deliver house price inflation of 4% in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- New rules will cut immigration by 98K a year—0.2% of the population—according to government estimates.
- We estimate that the curbs will slow potential growth by 0.1% per year, raising the pressure for tax hikes.
- A greater sectoral mismatch between workers and jobs will likely result too, adding to wage pressures.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Strong underlying growth momentum and President Trump’s backtracking on tariffs boost our forecasts.
- We boost our growth forecasts to 1.1% and 1.2% in 2025 and 2026 respectively, each up 0.2pp..
- We see risks to the consensus, and the MPC’s forecast, for April CPI skewed heavily upwards.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- UK GDP was surprisingly strong again in March; the economy was ticking over fine ahead of the trade war.
- We think the MPC is far too pessimistic in pegging underlying growth at 0.0% in Q1.
- We raise our forecasts for GDP growth in 2025 and 2026, but risks remain tilted to the downside.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect CPI inflation to jump to 3.6% in April, from 2.6%, above the MPC’s forecast, 3.4%.
- We estimate that indexed, government-set and utility prices will add 120bp to April inflation.
- We see risks to the MPC’s forecast skewed upwards, as a raft of cost rises could prompt price rises.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The labour market is easing gradually, and vacancies suggest the market is now a little ‘loose’.
- But March and April look like the low point for jobs, with jobless claims steady and redundancies falling.
- Pay growth is stronger than slack suggests, and too punchy to deliver sustainable 2% inflation soon.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Volatility at the long end of the gilt curve will fail to deter the MPC from continuing QT from October.
- The level of reserves in the system is elevated, and rate-setters are keen to dispose of APF assets.
- We expect the BoE to reduce the pace of QT only modestly in 2025/26, to £80B per year.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The MPC turned more dovish last week, just not as dramatically as the market expected.
- The US–UK trade deal will have a small impact on trade flows but could relieve some uncertainty.
- Strong GDP growth and upward payroll revisions should maintain the sense of monetary caution.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The MPC shifted dovishly yesterday, cutting growth and inflation forecasts due to heightened uncertainty.
- But rate-setters disappointed the market, which had seen a chance of “gradual” guidance being ditched.
- We still look for two more rate cuts this year, but now in August—versus June previously—and November.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- We expect CPI inflation to jump to 3.6% in April, from 2.6%, matching the MPC’s February forecast.
- Ofgem’s utility price hike, a massive water-bill increase, tax hikes and indexed prices drive the rise.
- Inflation will likely stay above 3% until January, despite recent falls in oil and natural gas prices.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Uncertainty hammered the PMI in April, suggesting a chance that UK GDP will fall in Q2.
- The MPC will retain some caution, however, as the PMI shows underlying inflation accelerating.
- Rate-setters can get away with a couple of precautionary rate cuts in May and June.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect zero GDP growth in March as industrial production falls and service activity slows.
- Quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.6% in Q1 will comfortably beat the MPC’s projection of 0.3%.
- GDP growth will slow further in Q2-to-Q4 2025 as the trade war begins to feed into the hard data.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- We expect the MPC to cut Bank Rate by 25bp next week, with two members favouring a 50bp reduction.
- The MPC will likely judge that lower market expectations for Bank Rate are mostly warranted.
- High uncertainty will sap growth, and a new disinflationary scenario should support faster rate cuts.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
