UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor Weekly Monitor
- A big jump in the BRC’s shop price index provides a warning of sticky price pressures.
- The lending data for December were more downbeat than November’s, but consumers still seem content.
- We forecast a six-to-three vote for a hold at this week’s MPC meeting, and expect little change to guidance .
- House prices jumped in November, leaving our call for a 2.0% year-over-year gain in Q4 2025 on track.
- We expect the market to heat up in 2026, as new buyers return from the sidelines.
- House price inflation should rise to 3.0% by Q4 2026, supported by stronger demand and weak supply.
- We expect the MPC to vote six-to-three to keep Bank Rate on hold at its February 5 meeting.
- The decision is a foregone conclusion, so focus will be on the guidance, which we expect to change little.
- Pay settlements likely slowing only slightly in 2026 will keep the MPC coy about the timing of the next cut.
- The BRC Shop Price Index showed goods inflation hitting a near two-year high in January.
- Strength was widespread and pushes up our January CPI inflation forecast to 3.1%, from 3.0% before.
- We treat the BRC with some caution, yet it carries a warning that inflation pressures may remain elevated.
- Retail sales growth month-to-month was flattered by jewellery sales and seasonals in December.
- But revisions mean sales increased by a solid 2.7% month-to-month annualised over 2024-to-25.
- Rising major purchase intentions and younger people’s confidence bode well for the outlook.
- The labour market is still loosening gradually, but price pressures are sticky and growth is rebounding.
- Rising consumers’ confidence and the jump in the flash PMI suggest positive momentum in Q1.
- We remain comfortable with our call for just one more cut to Bank Rate this year, in April.
- December’s public finances report showed borrowing was below the OBR’s most recent projections.
- The shaky foundations of the Budget create a risk of looser fiscal policy in the coming years.
- Risks are tilted towards a sell-off in the gilt market as investors re-price in long-term fiscal pressures.
- Tobacco duty and a jump in airfares drove up CPI inflation to 3.4% in December, a touch above our call.
- We note a few obvious erratic factors, with a January airfares correction likely balanced by solid hotel prices.
- Inflation gives rate-setters little reason to rush to cut next month, but we see a final rate reduction in April.
- Yesterday’s labour-market headlines were dovish, with payrolls falling and wage growth slowing.
- But payrolls look implausibly weak relative to surveys, while job vacancies point to stable labour demand.
- Compositional effects flatter the pay slowing in 2025, while PAYE points to a large AWE jump in December.
- The Reform Party is well ahead in the polls, and Sir Keir Starmer remains deeply unpopular with voters.
- A drubbing for the government at the local elections in May could trigger a Labour leadership challenge.
- Most roads lead to further fiscal U-turns, increasing the risk of looser fiscal policy.
- Last week brought evidence that the economy has rebounded smartly from the annual Budget circus.
- GDP growth is on track to rise 0.1% quarter-to-quarter in Q4, 10bp more than the MPC assumed.
- We look for a 25K month-to-month payroll fall in December, and inflation to tick up to 3.3%.
- GDP growth looks set to beat the MPC’s forecast in Q4 2025, after November’s 0.3% gain.
- The recovery in autos manufacturing has little further to run, but underlying activity looks solid to us.
- Construction output is falling rapidly, closing the gap on the PMI and representing a downside risk to GDP.
- We estimate that slowing net immigration since 2023 has cut the payroll run-rate by about 20K per month.
- Net immigration fell sharply to 205K in the year to June 2025, from a 944K peak in March 2023.
- Tighter visa rules, such as higher salary thresholds, have driven much of the immigration slowdown.
- Tobacco-duty hikes and a seasonal boost to travel prices should raise CPI inflation to 3.3% in December.
- We would forecast 3.4% inflation if the CPI collection date were December 16, instead of 9, as we assume.
- Airfares inflation would be 24pp higher than we assume if the CPI were collected on December 16.
- We expect ‘final’ payrolls to fall by 15K month-to-month in December, but hiring will improve in 2026.
- The LFS unemployment rate will drop to 5.0% in November, but that still likely overplays job weakness.
- Wage inflation will moderate in December, but surveys suggest the pace of pay growth is flattening.
- Firms are putting the Budget circus behind them, despite a disappointing headline PMI.
- Surveys of job growth improved in December, and redundancies dropped after a post-Budget surge.
- The DMP shows wage growth and inflation stuck well above target-consistent rates.
- Manufacturing output likely rose in November as auto production recovered after the JLR cyber attack.
- Leading indicators suggest that consumer-facing services were spared the worst of pre-Budget worries.
- Output growth in Q4 2025 will likely run close to the MPC’s forecast and the steer from the PMI.
- We expect CPI inflation to tick up to 3.3% in December, from 3.2%, as tobacco duties rise.
- A later CPI collection date than we assume would tip our forecast to 3.4% via higher airfares inflation.
- Strong BRC Shop Prices for clothes in December pose an upside risk to our forecast.
- Look past the disappointing headline PMI for December; forward-looking balances improved.
- The Q4 PMI is consistent with 0.0-to-0.2% growth, but new orders point to an improvement in January.
- Price pressures remain stubborn despite weak jobs, which will keep the MPC cautious.
- Strong ISA savings were likely front-running the Budget rather than signalling weak spending.
- Credit flows to businesses and households rose strongly in November, conveying confidence.
- Mortgage approvals ticked down only slightly, and buyer interest should pick up in 2026.
