Pantheon Macroeconomics

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UK Publications

Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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Datanotes Weekly Monitor Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist) Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)

UK Datanote: U.K. International Trade, December 2023

  • In one line: Further narrowing likely this year, reducing sterling’s sensitivity to the risk profile of foreign investors.

UK

UK Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, January 2024

  • In one line: Further evidence to support our view of a material recovery in house prices this year. 

UK

UK Datanote: U.K. Car Registrations, January 2024

  • In one line: Very weak, but should now recover in line with consumers' confidence. 

UK

UK Datanote: U.K. Retail Sales, December 2023

In one line: It’s always darkest before the dawn.

UK

UK Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, December 2023

  • In one line: Consistent with a recovery in 2024. 

UK

UK Datanote: U.K. Official House Price Index, November

  • In one line: Further falls and additional downward revisions should mean a 5% peak-to-trough fall. 

UK

UK Datanote: U.K. International Trade, November 2023

  • In one line: Narrowing trend to re-emerge during the rest of Q4.

UK

8 January 2024 UK Monitor Immigration Will Continue to Boost the Workforce Strongly, Despite Reforms

  • Net migration has jumped over the past two years, following a sharp drop in 2020 and 2021.
  • The government estimates that this year’s policy changes will reduce immigration by 25%...
  • ...But Skilled Worker visa numbers won’t fall by much, and total arrivals will spike in Q1, before the rules change.

UK

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing Survey, December 2023

  • In one line: Downturn in manufacturing output has further to run. 

UK

2 January 2024 UK Monitor Forecast Review: CPI Inflation to Fall to 2% During Q2, Spurring Rate Cuts

  • The economy flirted with recession in 2023, but green shoots emerged towards the end of the year.
  • A sharp fall in energy prices suggests CPI inflation will continue to fall quickly, probably touching 2% during Q2.
  • Markets' interest rate expectations, however, have fallen too far; we still think the MPC will wait until May.

UK

UK Datanote: U.K. Retail Sales, November

In one line: A gradual recovery should be sustained next year. 

UK

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, December

  • In one line: Manufacturing output likely has further to fall. 

UK

UK Datanote: U.K. GfK Consumer's Confidence Survey, December

  • In one line: Recovery should gather momentum next year. 

UK

UK Datanote: U.K. International Trade, October 2023

  • In one line: Narrowing trend to re-emerge during the rest of Q4.

UK

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Services Survey, November 2023

In one line: Recession fears should be quelled by November’s PMI. 

UK

UK Datanote: U.K. Car Registrations, November 2023

  • In one line: Still weak, but car sales should rebound next year. 

UK

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing Survey, November 2023

  • In one line: Manufacturing output is being hit by retailers running down their inventories.

UK

UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, November 2023

  • In one line: Don’t get too excited about the prospect of a sustained recovery just yet,  

UK

UK Datanote: U.K. GfK Consumer's Confidence Survey, November

  • In one line: A rebound in real incomes will drive a recovery in confidence.

UK

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Keywords for: U.K. Documents

U.K. Document Vault, independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence,