UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Samuel Tombs Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)
- In one line: Fractionally weaker PMI still signals solid recovery and growth beating MPC forecasts.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Consumer credit rebound backs up retail sales recovery in January.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Large bounce in the output index looks suspicious.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Mortgage rate falls do the trick.
Samuel TombsUK
- The stronger flow of consumer credit in January backs up the rebound in retail sales.
- Households’ real liquid assets are rising faster than pre-Covid, thanks to higher saving and lower inflation.
- Consumers do not need to raise their saving rate, so real wage gains will boost spending in 2024.
Samuel TombsUK
- The PMI output prices balance implies the underlying services CPI is still rising at a 5% annualised pace.
- Take that signal seriously; the balance has reliably captured big service inflation swings in the past.
- Other surveys support the PMI, showing still- elevated wage growth is driving services inflation.
Samuel TombsUK
- House prices have continued to recover over the winter, but sales instructions are also rising alongside demand.
- Affordability will remain a key barrier for many would-be buyers this year.
- We will need to revise up our forecast for a 5% rise in prices between Q1 and Q4 if Mr. Hunt cuts stamp duty.
Samuel TombsUK
- The effective rate on the stock of mortgages likely will rise by about 50bp this year, less than 2023’s 86bp increase...
- ...Fewer households have to refinance in 2024, and the rate increase for those that do will be much smaller.
- The household debt-to-income ratio has fallen to just 122%, well below its 2015-to-2019 average, 135%.
Samuel TombsUK
CPI INFLATION WILL BE SUB-2.0% AS SOON AS Q2...
- ...BUT STICKY WAGE GROWTH WILL LIMIT RATE CUTS
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Forget the small drop; improving real wage growth will keep confidence rising.
Samuel TombsUK
- We estimate the Chancellor’s headroom for tax cuts will double to £25bn, mainly due to lower debt interest costs.
- The Chancellor will likely use most of that headroom for personal tax cuts and revving up the housing market.
- Markets will assume the next government will hike taxes to return government finances to a sustainable path.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Still consistent with GDP growth exceeding the MPC’s forecast, and a very gradual slowing in services CPI inflation.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Borrowing in 2023/24 set to undershoot the OBR’s forecast by £10B, despite January’s smaller-than-expected surplus.
Samuel TombsUK
- PMI data point to GDP rising 0.3% quarter-to-quarter in Q1; firms expect the upturn to gather momentum ahead.
- The services employment index exceeds its 1998-to-2019 average, bringing the risk of labour market re-tightening.
- The recovery, however, has been supported by expectations of falling rates; the MPC needs to deliver some cuts.
Samuel TombsUK
PRICES HAVE TURNED A CORNER; EXPECT A 5% RISE IN 2024...
- ...AS REAL INCOMES RISE & MORTGAGE RATES EDGE LOWER
Samuel TombsUK
- Public borrowing in 2023/24 is set to undershoot the OBR’s Autumn Statement forecast by about £10B.
- The OBR will revise down its forecast for debt interest payments in 2024/25 by around £14B...
- ...enabling Mr. Hunt to cut taxes materially without risking markets’ ire with higher debt issuance projections.
Samuel TombsUK
- The MPC will see labour market data for April, showing the impact of the NLW hike on wages, if it waits until June.
- The MPC also will have two more CPI reports to hand if it waits until June; both likely will show sub-2% inflation.
- Most Committee members would rather wait too long than cut prematurely; the cost of waiting should be low.
Samuel TombsUK
- The response rate to the Labour Force Survey of households remained low in Q4, despite reforms.
- The response rate for the “TLFS”, which is set to replace the LFS in September, is only slightly higher.
- The response rates for the business surveys used for the GDP and wages figures, however, remain high.
Samuel TombsUK
In one line: Amid the monthly volatility, signs of a consumer-led recovery taking hold.
Samuel TombsUK
- Smooth out the huge noise in December and January retail sales and the trend is improving.
- Sales volumes rose 1.5% between October and January, as falling inflation boosted consumer spending power.
- In 2024, we expect real wages to rise the most in 17 years, propelling the UK out of recession.
Samuel TombsUK
