UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)
- In one line: Manufacturing activity improves according to the CBI, but the trade war will hurt businesses.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- The insolvency rate remains low, and well below recession levels.
- Payroll-tax hikes have stopped the insolvency rate falling, and leading indicators have ticked up a little.
- We expect corporate distress to stay low, even as the trade war weighs on GDP growth.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- The gilt market continues to function well, but yields have been volatile.
- The gilt curve has steepened as markets reprice for more interest rate cuts from the MPC.
- Longer-dated gilts have sold off and remain vulnerable to policy developments.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- Official house prices rose sharply in January, taking year-over-year house price inflation to a two-year high.
- House price inflation will ease to 4.0% year-over-year in December, as higher stamp duty curbs demand.
- Better affordability as markets price more rate cuts will be offset by weaker employment.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Trade uncertainty will continue to weigh on manufacturing sentiment and activity.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Manufacturing orders tick up and price pressures fall in February, but the sector remains weak.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- Firms are adjusting to payroll-tax hikes across several dimensions, rather than just slashing employment.
- More firms say they will raise prices than cut employment in response to increased NICs.
- Accordingly, we think the weakest surveys of job growth are exaggerating the employment slowdown.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- We expect slower, and fewer, rate cuts than the median market participant.
- We expect higher CPI inflation than the consensus and assume a higher neutral interest rate.
- An upside skew to markets’ inflation forecasts likely drives elevated nominal estimates of neutral.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- Little sign of consumer gloom in the money and credit data, as households cut back on saving…
- ...Consumers cut real liquid assets by £0.3B month-to-month in December, and mortgage approvals rose.
- Payroll-tax hikes hit capex, however, with corporate net external finance falling in December.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- House price inflation will accelerate after posting a gain of just 0.1% month-to-month in November.
- Forward-looking indicators point to house price inflation reaching 5% year-over-year in the spring…
- …But sticky borrowing costs and tax changes will cap annual growth in house prices at 4% in 2025.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Manufacturing orders bounce back, but activity remains chronically weak.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- Monthly insolvencies have fallen back towards their pre-pandemic trend.
- The insolvency rate, which controls for the size of the economy, is almost at pre-pandemic levels.
- Even modest GDP growth will keep a lid on insolvency growth in 2025.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- Surging gilt yields have been driven mainly by a global repricing, rather than idiosyncratic UK sovereign risk.
- We expect gilt yields to fall during 2025 as the MPC cuts interest rates and fiscal worries fade.
- The Chancellor will plan for weaker public spending to offset higher debt interest costs.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- We cut our Q4 growth forecast to 0.2% quarter-to-quarter, following a string of weak data.
- The labour market remains tight, and wage growth is still running above target-consistent levels.
- The MPC will proceed cautiously and cut three times in 2025: in February, May and November.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Output and inflation head in opposite directions, leaving the MPC with a difficult trade-off.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
