UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)
- In one line: Modestly deanchored inflation expectations warrant caution from the MPC.
- We expect payrolls to fall by 10K in July and August, assuming the usual revisions.
- Vacancies are stable or recovering according to private-sector data; the official data will follow suit.
- Pay growth is moderating only slowly as high inflation expectations and stabilising jobs sustain wage gains.
- We expect GDP to be unchanged in July, as services output and industrial production stagnate.
- Activity in the construction sector likely fell, following the lead from chronically weak business sentiment.
- Our call points to quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.2% in Q3, below the MPC’s forecast, with risks skewed up.
- The PMI rose to a 12-month high in August, boosted by falling policy uncertainty.
- The PMI signals 0.3% quarter-to-quarter GDP growth in Q3, matching the MPC’s forecast.
- The MPC’s hands will be tied for the rest of 2025, as growth at potential limits spare capacity emerging.
