UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- In one line: Manufacturing is past the worst as tariff uncertainty fades.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House prices rebound in May, but the stamp-duty-unwind has more room to run.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Consumers are back to spending rather than saving, which should keep GDP growth ticking along.
- Households seem to be reducing saving, and borrowing on credit cards to support spending.
- Manufacturing is past the worst, and so far we see little sign of trade diversion cutting goods inflation.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect GDP to fall 0.1% month-to-month in April, as tariff front-running unwinds.
- We still look for quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.3% in Q2, above the MPC’s projection, 0.1%.
- A resilient economy is supporting our call for just one more 25bp cut to Bank Rate this year.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
STRONG MOMENTUM, ELEVATED INFLATION...
- …BACK TO ONLY ONE MORE RATE CUT THIS YEAR
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Our early calculations suggest CPI inflation will fall only slightly in May, to 3.4%.
- Clothes, computer games, hotel prices and food should mostly offset a fall in travel prices.
- Duty hikes scheduled for 2026 will support headline inflation; we expect more duty hikes to be announced.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The tariff shock is fading and Q1 GDP beat consensus, so we raise our 2025 growth forecast to 1.3%.
- Inflation will hover around 3.4% for the rest of 2025, and drop below 3.0% again only next April.
- Easing uncertainty, elevated inflation and growth momentum mean just one more rate cut in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Q2 GDP is shaping up for a solid gain as retail sales roar into the spring, defying rocketing economic uncertainty.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Uncertainty driven rebound in consumers' confidence points to continued solid retail spending growth.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: PMI rebounds as uncertainty fades, and drop in price balances helps the MPC.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Borrowing likely overshot the OBR’s projections in April, we still expect tax rises by the end of the year.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Our high neutral rate estimate of 3.75%-4.0% is one reason we expect only one more MPC rate cut.
- Elevated inflation expectations, especially for consumers, point to a high neutral rate.
- Slowing disinflation in 2025 also suggests that Bank Rate is only modestly restrictive now.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Hard data defy weak sentiment, bumping up our Q2 growth forecast to 0.3% quarter-to-quarter…
- …The uncertainty shock has faded, and inflation will likely stay above 3.0% until next April.
- So, we expect the MPC to skip an August cut, lowering rates only once more in 2025, in November.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House prices jump in March as buyers rush to beat stamp duty, but we expect a partial unwind in the coming months.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Inflation should run around 3.5% for the rest of the year, although an Easter boost means the April headline exaggerates the strength a little.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Falling uncertainty as President Trump dialled back his more ruinous tariffs boosted the PMI in May.
- The PMI signals 0.3% q/q GDP growth once we adjust for the survey’s typical overreaction to uncertainty.
- The MPC will welcome easing price pressures but needs another month of data to confirm the trend.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Administered, government-set and indexed price hikes drove inflation up to 3.5% in April.
- Erratic factors added only modestly to inflation, so the MPC will have to take the headline seriously.
- Accumulated news—growth, lower tariffs, inflation—leads us to expect only one more rate cut this year.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Official house price inflation reached a 26-month high in February, at 5.4%, up from 4.8% in January.
- Momentum will dip temporarily as the stamp-duty distortion unwinds…
- ...But strong wage growth and falling interest rates should still deliver house price inflation of 4% in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- New rules will cut immigration by 98K a year—0.2% of the population—according to government estimates.
- We estimate that the curbs will slow potential growth by 0.1% per year, raising the pressure for tax hikes.
- A greater sectoral mismatch between workers and jobs will likely result too, adding to wage pressures.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Strong underlying growth momentum and President Trump’s backtracking on tariffs boost our forecasts.
- We boost our growth forecasts to 1.1% and 1.2% in 2025 and 2026 respectively, each up 0.2pp..
- We see risks to the consensus, and the MPC’s forecast, for April CPI skewed heavily upwards.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
