UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- We expect CPI inflation to rise to 3.7% in July from 3.6% in June, as motor fuel prices increase.
- We see upside risk to our goods price call after strong BRC Shop Price inflation and flash Eurozone CPI.
- We now expect inflation to peak at 4.0% in September, up from 3.8% previously, as food price inflation rises.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Manufacturing activity should gradually recover as tariff-uncertainty fades.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The housing market recovery is underway.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Underlying growth is fine, helped by consumers; we look for GDP to grow by 1.2% in both 2025 and 2026.
- Payroll falls are a risk, but we think they exaggerate job losses, and in any case vacancies are stabilising.
- We now expect inflation to peak at 4.0% in September, so the MPC will have to pause after it cuts in August.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Retail sales are trending up solidly.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Consumers’ confidence knocked by inflation and tax hike speculation.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Consumers still look set to support GDP growth in H2.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Our central Bank Rate forecast is hawkish, assuming only one more cut this year and none next year.
- A probability-weighted average of three scenarios is more dovish but still above the market in 2026.
- Continued sharp payroll falls or easing inflation expectations would shift us to more dovish scenarios.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
WEAK JOBS PUSHING THE MPC TO AN AUGUST CUT...
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect the MPC to cut Bank Rate by 25bp on August 7 in response to weak payrolls.
- We expect two votes for a 50bp reduction, four for a 25bp cut and three for no change.
- The MPC will likely maintain “gradual and careful” guidance, but may need to mention neutral.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We reiterate our Q2 GDP growth call of 0.2% quarter-to-quarter after retail sales improved in June.
- Over-50s’ confidence disconnected from spending, possibly as political views drive sentiment more.
- Under-50s are optimistic, consistent with retail volumes growing by 2% year-over-year.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Enough for the MPC to cut, but watch for chunky revisions in the final release.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Vacancies are one of the least accurate leading indicators of near-term job growth.
- Moreover, high-frequency data suggest that vacancies have stabilised...
- ...In part as small firms’ hiring intentions recover sharply from payroll-tax-hike-induced falls in April.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Autumn tax hikes are likely and will probably be backloaded.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We estimate that most of the fall in payrolls since October has been driven by payroll-tax hikes.
- 35K of the payroll drop likely reflects mismeasure-ment, as workers switch to self-employed status.
- Job growth should ease as firms complete their adjustment to the tax hikes.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Sticky wage and price gains are being caused in part by falling MPC credibility.
- Household inflation expectations sit higher than their relationship with inflation implies, and are still rising.
- The UK is an outlier in Europe, where inflation expectations seem to have behaved much better.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Jobs falls are easing and pay growth is far too high to deliver 2% inflation, but the MPC seems keen to cut anyway.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Prices will keep gaining as stamp duty disruption has further to unwind.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Inflation is proving sticky, with most of June's acceleration looking genuine.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: A huge bounce in official retail sales is coming in June as seasonal distortions unwind.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
