UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- We expect CPI inflation to hold at 3.8% in August, as a jump in food prices offsets a correction in airfares.
- We see upside risk to our call after strong flash Eurozone food CPI inflation.
- Gilts suffer from a global sell-off and UK-specific risks; Ms. Reeves needs to aim for proper fiscal headroom.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- GDP growth beat consensus again in Q2, and surveys point to improving momentum so far in Q3.
- Services inflation is proving sticky, as wage growth remains far too strong to deliver 2% inflation.
- Job surveys were weaker than we expected but continue to point to payroll falls easing.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Solid credit flows and rising mortgage approvals signal confidence amongst business and households.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The housing market is still stuttering after April’s stamp-duty hike, but prices will rise in H2.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The fall in the Manufacturing PMI looks like a blip, sentiment should improve as tariff uncertainty abates.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Data in the past month have been hawkish: rising GDP, a recovering job market and strong inflation.
- We retain our call for quarter-to-quarter GDP growth of 0.2% in Q3, matching the consensus estimate.
- Strong growth and sticky inflation mean we expect the MPC to keep rates on hold for the rest of 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:The Chancellor will still have to raise taxes in October despite borrowing matching official forecasts.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Consumers’ confidence to stay rangebound for the rest of the year.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Growth will match the MPC’s expectations in Q3.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House prices are recovering quickly from the stamp duty hike and will continue to rise in H2.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Another hawkish blow to the MPC means no more cuts this year.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: RICS falters in July but it will gradually rise in H2.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Strong GDP growth in H1 illustrates a high neutral rate.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Above-consensus payrolls and GDP growth show the job market is recovering and growth is holding firm.
- The MPC faces rebounding growth, a stabilising job market and inflation miles above target.
- We expect CPI inflation for July to come in fractionally below the MPC’s forecast at 3.7%.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The REC improves in July but signals the jobs market remains weak.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Stubborn wage and price pressure despite falling employment suggests a cautious MPC.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: We’re comfortable assuming the MPC on hold for the rest of this year after hawkish guidance changes and vote.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Official retail sales will rise at a healthy clip in July.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: A stabilising labour market and elevated pay growth constrain the MPC.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- A tight vote split and cautious guidance make the MPC’s August cut to Bank Rate hawkish.
- Inflation averaging 3.7% for the rest of the year means August’s rate cut will be the last in 2025.
- The data-flow will firm up this week, to show GDP growth rebounding and payrolls barely falling.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
