UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Datanotes Weekly Monitor Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- In one line:The public finances are weak heading into the trade war, difficult choices lay ahead for the Chancellor.
- In one line: Erratic computer games and hotel prices drag inflation down, headline inflation will still likely jump to 3.5% in April.
- In one line: Enough softening for the MPC to cut, but strong wage growth will keep rate setters cautious.
- In one line: House prices rise in February but property price inflation will ease in Q2.
- In one line: Retail sales continue to grow strongly but slowing global growth clouds the outlook.
- Weaker-than-expected March inflation makes a May interest rate cut a racing certainty.
- Solid pre-tariff growth means we look for only three more 25bp Bank Rate cuts this year…
- …But downside risks allow earlier moves; we expect back-to-back ‘insurance’ cuts in May and June.
- In one line: Solid jobs and accelerating wages will keep the MPC cautious heading into the trade war.
- In one line:GDP soars in February but the MPC will look through the pre-Tariff data.
- In one line: Fracturing global trade will begin to weigh on the trade balance in the coming months.
- In one line: The housing market is cooling now but activity will pick up in H2.
- GDP growth soared in February as industrial production and services activity rose higher…
- …But the ongoing global trade war has made incoming data obsolete.
- The MPC will be challenged by a broken trading environment and CPI at 3.5% in H2.
- In one line: Jobs market passes the worst as prices and wages prove persistent.
- In one line: Strengthening domestic spending can cushion the tariff blow.
- In one line: The Construction sector will continue to recover as planning reforms and Government spending boost sentiment.
- The initial response to US tariffs suggests the barriers are more disinflationary for the UK than most.
- Markets are understandably pricing downside growth tail-risks and the UK avoiding retaliation, for now.
- But we continue to think this tariff fandango will eventually prove to be a stagflationary shock.
- In one line: Stamp duty changes halt house price inflation in March, but it will accelerate again.
- In one line: Tariffs will keep manufacturing output falling for the forseeable future.
