Pantheon Macroeconomics

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UK Publications

Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Datanotes Weekly Monitor Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, May 2025

  • In one line: BRC retail sales growth stronger than the headline suggests, consumer spending will remain robust.

9 June 2025 UK Monitor Week in review: the belief in quarterly cuts is strong

  • We think the chances of a ‘skip’ at the August MPC meeting are higher than the market assumes.
  • Inflation will likely run above 2% beyond 2026, disinflation has slowed and GDP is trending up solidly.
  • Food for the doves next week, with payroll and GDP falls likely; but Q2 GDP is still set to grow 0.3% q/q.

UK Datanote: Bank of England Decision Maker Panel, May 2025

  • In one line: DMP raises the chance of an August cut, but the survey will likely recover further in June.

UK Datanote: Construction PMI, May 2025

  • In one line: Construction PMI should improve only slowly as sentiment remains weak.

UK Datanote: UK Car Registrations, May 2025

  • In one line: Falling interest rates and a healthy consumer will support car registrations.

UK Datanote: UK Final Services and Composite PMI, May 2025

  • In one line: Growth has been steady, if unspectacular, once we account for the PMI’s excess sensitivity to uncertainty.

UK Datanote: UK Money & Credit, April 2025

  • In one line: Falling saving and more borrowing supporting consumption should keep GDP growth ticking along despite a drag from investment. 

UK Datanote: UK Final Manufacturing PMI, May 2025

  • In one line: Manufacturing is past the worst as tariff uncertainty fades.

UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, May 2025

  • In one line: House prices rebound in May, but the stamp-duty-unwind has more room to run.

2 June 2025 UK Monitor GDP likely fell 0.1% month-to-month in April

  • We expect GDP to fall 0.1% month-to-month in April, as tariff front-running unwinds.
  • We still look for quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.3% in Q2, above the MPC’s projection, 0.1%.
  • A resilient economy is supporting our call for just one more 25bp cut to Bank Rate this year.
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Keywords for: U.K. Documents

U.K. Document Vault, independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence,