UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Datanotes Weekly Monitor
- Retail sales fell by 0.9% q/q in Q4, but spending on services fared better; total spending likely fell only slightly.
- We judge households have finished re-accumulating the savings buffer they lost in 2022...
- ...So brisk growth in real disposable income this year should filter through to spending; the MPC won't panic.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Consistent with a recovery in 2024.
UK
- In one line: Further falls and additional downward revisions should mean a 5% peak-to-trough fall.
UK
- In one line: Slowing trend in the all-items index maintained, despite December’s rebound.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: The recent slowdown in wage growth looks real, but the MPC will remain anxious about the near-term outlook.
Samuel TombsUK
- GDP is on course to drop marginally in Q4, despite the rebound in November...
- ...The composite PMI picked up in December, but the retail, construction and health sectors all likely struggled.
- A recovery, however, should take hold soon; we look for 0.7% year-over-year growth in GDP in 2024.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Narrowing trend to re-emerge during the rest of Q4.
UK
- In one line: The underlying trend still looks flat, but a genuine recovery will take hold this year.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Still supporting the case for rate cuts, but wage growth likely will remain stronger than it implies.
Samuel TombsUK
- Net migration has jumped over the past two years, following a sharp drop in 2020 and 2021.
- The government estimates that this year’s policy changes will reduce immigration by 25%...
- ...But Skilled Worker visa numbers won’t fall by much, and total arrivals will spike in Q1, before the rules change.
UK
- In one line: Downturn in manufacturing output has further to run.
UK
- The economy flirted with recession in 2023, but green shoots emerged towards the end of the year.
- A sharp fall in energy prices suggests CPI inflation will continue to fall quickly, probably touching 2% during Q2.
- Markets' interest rate expectations, however, have fallen too far; we still think the MPC will wait until May.
UK
In one line: A gradual recovery should be sustained next year.
UK
- In one line: The trend in GDP was flat in 2023; expect a material improvement in 2024.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: The consolidation is progressing well enough for modest tax cuts in the Budget.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Sharp decline in inflation not merely due to some of its noisy components.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Manufacturing output likely has further to fall.
UK
- The composite PMI rose in December to a six-month high; consumers’ confidence is near a two-year high.
- This pick-up reflects rising real household disposable income, and possibly slowing savings replenishment.
- The MPC, however, needn’t stay very restrictive; the job market is loosening, and inflation pressures are fading.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Further recovery should ease recession fears.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Recovery should gather momentum next year.
UK
