UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Datanotes Weekly Monitor Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- Hard data defy weak sentiment, bumping up our Q2 growth forecast to 0.3% quarter-to-quarter…
- …The uncertainty shock has faded, and inflation will likely stay above 3.0% until next April.
- So, we expect the MPC to skip an August cut, lowering rates only once more in 2025, in November.
- In one line: House prices jump in March as buyers rush to beat stamp duty, but we expect a partial unwind in the coming months.
- In one line: Inflation should run around 3.5% for the rest of the year, although an Easter boost means the April headline exaggerates the strength a little.
- Strong underlying growth momentum and President Trump’s backtracking on tariffs boost our forecasts.
- We boost our growth forecasts to 1.1% and 1.2% in 2025 and 2026 respectively, each up 0.2pp..
- We see risks to the consensus, and the MPC’s forecast, for April CPI skewed heavily upwards.
- In one line: Small boost from tariff-front running, which likely continued as President Trump pushed back reciprocal tariffs by 90-days.
- In one line:Fading consumer caution will keep GDP ticking along.
- In one line: Gradually easing labour market justifies further gradual rate cuts.
- In one line: Easter distorts the BRC, but look through that and retail sales volumes are still rising strongly.
- In one line: Job and pay growth improve slightly as payroll tax drag eases, but the MPC downplay the REC now.
- In one line: The housing market slowdown will be temporary according to the RICS.
- In one line: Keeping ‘gradual’ guidance disappointed market expectations, but the MPC are on track for a couple more cuts this year.
- In one line: Dovish DMP but the survey was run in the eye of the storm, business responses would likely be different now.
- The MPC turned more dovish last week, just not as dramatically as the market expected.
- The US–UK trade deal will have a small impact on trade flows but could relieve some uncertainty.
- Strong GDP growth and upward payroll revisions should maintain the sense of monetary caution.
- In one line: The Construction PMI improves but signals falling activity, it will remain weak for some time.
- In one line: Back-to-back rate cuts are likely as sentiment collapses, but accelerating inflation will keep MPC guidance cautious.
- In one line: Car registrations tank as duties increase.
- In one line: House prices fall in April as the rush to beat stamp duty increases unwinds, they will rise in H2.
- In one line: Consumers' major purchases held up, but downside risks to the retail spending build.
- In one line:Retail sales were heating up before President Trump’s tariffs upended the outlook.
- The economy was growing solidly prior to tariffs, powered by consumers opening their wallets.
- Soft data are creaking, but they likely overstate economic weakness, the PMI in particular.
- A 50bp May rate cut is off the table, but we see a decent chance of 25bp reductions in May and June.
