- In one line: The labour market holding up will keep the MPC gradual and careful, or maybe cautious.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:GDP is on track to grow 0.3% quarter-to-quarter in Q1, beating the MPC's forecast.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- GDP is trending up by 0.8% month-to-month annualised, despite January’s small output fall.
- Break-adjusted five-year inflation expectations hit a record high since 2009; the MPC must be cautious.
- We expect the MPC to vote eight-to-one to keep interest rates on hold this Thursday.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Short-term volatility as stamp duty relief ends in April, but house prices will still rise 4% in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Retail sales growth remains healthy, driven by strong real wage growth and rate cuts.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: REC’s recovery indicates that the labour market is stabilising.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- UK economic uncertainty has decoupled from soaring worries in the US.
- Consumer spending in the UK can recover, with uncertainty only modestly elevated.
- The PMI exaggerates weakness; the DMP shows jobs stalling rather than falling, and inflation rising.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Widespread uncertainty and weak demand pummel the PMI, but it should recover gradually.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Job growth holds up and disinflation is over.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Catastrophic jobs balance exaggerates economic weakness, but risks to our growth forecast are firmly down.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Easing borrowing costs drive car registrations higher in February.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Consumers are spending again but uncertainty hits investment.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Surging global uncertainty hammers manufacturing output, but watch rising price pressures.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House prices rise again in February, but watch for a slowdown after April.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- High and rising global economic policy uncertainty has hit business investment hard.
- But consumer spending is recovering from an autumn wobble, so GDP growth can improve in 2025.
- Inflation will peak at 3.7% in September, allowing the MPC to cut only twice more this year.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Retail sales recover from pre-Budget worries, more gains lie ahead as wages rise solidly.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Fiscal pressures pile on the Chancellor as revenues undershoot in January; it will only get worse from here.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Growth is weak but has bottomed while price pressures remain stubborn.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Strong wage growth and falling interest rates will keep supporting consumers’ confidence.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Manufacturing orders tick up and price pressures fall in February, but the sector remains weak.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
