UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Datanotes Weekly Monitor Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- The initial response to US tariffs suggests the barriers are more disinflationary for the UK than most.
- Markets are understandably pricing downside growth tail-risks and the UK avoiding retaliation, for now.
- But we continue to think this tariff fandango will eventually prove to be a stagflationary shock.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Stamp duty changes halt house price inflation in March, but it will accelerate again.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Tariffs will keep manufacturing output falling for the forseeable future.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Growth recovered in Q4 as Budget uncertainty passed but President Trump’s tariff hammer hangs over the outlook.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The trade balance will remain weak as energy prices remain high and uncertainty prevails.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Retail sales continue their post-Budget rebound and will drive a growth recovery in Q1
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- UK consumers are finding their feet, and likely boosted Q1 GDP growth to 0.3% quarter-to-quarter.
- Stubborn inflation pressures will keep the MPC to only two more rate cuts this year.
- But President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ hangs over the outlook, posing major risks to growth and inflation.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Erratic items drag down inflation, underlying pressures remain stubborn.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House prices surge in January but the rush to beat higher stamp duty will fade.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Solid growth and strong price pressures means the MPC will have to be cautious.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Weak public finances mean spending cuts in the Spring Statement, taxes will rise in October.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Good fundamentals and bad news will continue to pull consumers’ confidence in opposing directions.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We are comfortable forecasting only two more rate cuts this year after hawkish tweaks to MPC guidance.
- Employment continues to hold up relative to surveys, and pay growth is far too strong to deliver 2% inflation.
- Ms. Reeves can rectify OBR forecast changes with only small spending cuts, affecting the MPC little.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Slightly more cautious committee keeps an option to skip a quarterly cut.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The labour market holding up will keep the MPC gradual and careful, or maybe cautious.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:GDP is on track to grow 0.3% quarter-to-quarter in Q1, beating the MPC's forecast.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- GDP is trending up by 0.8% month-to-month annualised, despite January’s small output fall.
- Break-adjusted five-year inflation expectations hit a record high since 2009; the MPC must be cautious.
- We expect the MPC to vote eight-to-one to keep interest rates on hold this Thursday.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Short-term volatility as stamp duty relief ends in April, but house prices will still rise 4% in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Retail sales growth remains healthy, driven by strong real wage growth and rate cuts.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
