UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Datanotes Weekly Monitor Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- In one line: Activity rises and price pressures fall, but geopolitical stress a rising worry.
- Soft data and one more dove than expected last week nudge up the chances of an August rate cut.
- We see the bar to a majority in August higher than the market does and retain our call for a November cut.
- June’s flash PMI will give a steer on Q2 GDP, and a host of MPC speeches will shed light on guidance.
- In one line: Employment growth eases according to the REC, but the worst of the jobs slowdown appears over.
- In one line:GDP falls in April but it will rebound as tax-hike-induced effects fade.
- The MPC will be in a pickle if oil prices rise another 5-to-10%, as inflation would peak close to 4%.
- Payrolls and GDP exaggerate weakness; we expect rebounds in June and May, respectively.
- We look for 3.4% CPI inflation in May and little change to the MPC’s “gradual and careful” guidance.
- In one line: A dovish release that raises the chance of the MPC easing policy again in August.
- In one line: BRC retail sales growth stronger than the headline suggests, consumer spending will remain robust.
- We think the chances of a ‘skip’ at the August MPC meeting are higher than the market assumes.
- Inflation will likely run above 2% beyond 2026, disinflation has slowed and GDP is trending up solidly.
- Food for the doves next week, with payroll and GDP falls likely; but Q2 GDP is still set to grow 0.3% q/q.
- In one line: DMP raises the chance of an August cut, but the survey will likely recover further in June.
- In one line: Construction PMI should improve only slowly as sentiment remains weak.
- In one line: Falling interest rates and a healthy consumer will support car registrations.
- In one line: Growth has been steady, if unspectacular, once we account for the PMI’s excess sensitivity to uncertainty.
- In one line: Falling saving and more borrowing supporting consumption should keep GDP growth ticking along despite a drag from investment.
- In one line: Manufacturing is past the worst as tariff uncertainty fades.
- In one line: House prices rebound in May, but the stamp-duty-unwind has more room to run.
- We expect GDP to fall 0.1% month-to-month in April, as tariff front-running unwinds.
- We still look for quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.3% in Q2, above the MPC’s projection, 0.1%.
- A resilient economy is supporting our call for just one more 25bp cut to Bank Rate this year.
- In one line:Q2 GDP is shaping up for a solid gain as retail sales roar into the spring, defying rocketing economic uncertainty.
- In one line: Uncertainty driven rebound in consumers' confidence points to continued solid retail spending growth.
- In one line: PMI rebounds as uncertainty fades, and drop in price balances helps the MPC.
- In one line:Borrowing likely overshot the OBR’s projections in April, we still expect tax rises by the end of the year.
