UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Datanotes Weekly Monitor Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- In one line: Enough for the MPC to cut, but inflation is proving persistent.
- In one line: The PMI should gradually improve as borrowing costs fall and the Government spends big.
- In one line: Manufacturing activity should gradually recover as tariff-uncertainty fades.
- In one line: The housing market recovery is underway.
- Underlying growth is fine, helped by consumers; we look for GDP to grow by 1.2% in both 2025 and 2026.
- Payroll falls are a risk, but we think they exaggerate job losses, and in any case vacancies are stabilising.
- We now expect inflation to peak at 4.0% in September, so the MPC will have to pause after it cuts in August.
- In one line:Retail sales are trending up solidly.
- In one line: Consumers’ confidence knocked by inflation and tax hike speculation.
- In one line: Consumers still look set to support GDP growth in H2.
- We reiterate our Q2 GDP growth call of 0.2% quarter-to-quarter after retail sales improved in June.
- Over-50s’ confidence disconnected from spending, possibly as political views drive sentiment more.
- Under-50s are optimistic, consistent with retail volumes growing by 2% year-over-year.
- In one line: Enough for the MPC to cut, but watch for chunky revisions in the final release.
- In one line:Autumn tax hikes are likely and will probably be backloaded.
- In one line: Jobs falls are easing and pay growth is far too high to deliver 2% inflation, but the MPC seems keen to cut anyway.
- In one line: Prices will keep gaining as stamp duty disruption has further to unwind.
- In one line: Inflation is proving sticky, with most of June's acceleration looking genuine.
- In one line: A huge bounce in official retail sales is coming in June as seasonal distortions unwind.
- In one line: Potential future tax hikes hit hiring sentiment, but wage growth is slowing only gradually.
- In one line: Recovering as the Stamp Duty disruption fades
- We reluctantly brought forward our rate-cut call to August, from November, but it’s a ‘one-and-done’.
- Underlying GDP is trending up, retail sales will bounce strongly in June, and payroll falls seem to be easing.
- We continue to expect above-target inflation out to end-2027 after sticky wage growth and inflation data.
- A second consecutive drop in GDP raises the chances that the MPC cuts rate again in August.
- But GDP should bounce in June, as real estate and car output improves and retail sales gain.
- We expect May’s payrolls fall to be revised much smaller and CPI inflation to tick up to 3.5% in June.
- In one line: Rising car registrations signals recovering underlying economic activity.
