UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Datanotes Weekly Monitor Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- In one line: Early Easter exaggerates the fall, but it was a weak reading nonetheless.
- In one line: Noise exaggerates growth, but GDP was nonetheless solid heading into the Iran War.
- In one line: Few signs of a spillover from higher energy prices into core import costs, yet.
- In one line: House price inflation to remain weak in 2026 as higher interest costs bite.
- In one line: Uncertainty hits permanent hiring, but vacancies improve, suggesting the job market is holding up.
- The bar to the MPC returning to rate cuts, if oil prices fall, looks high, as growth and inflation are holding up.
- But a thin Iran-US deal, if signed, would lead us to shift to one or no hikes this year.
- Disastrous local election results for the Labour Party will keep political risk elevated
- In one line: Not as good as it looks, but the PMIs still say the MPC should worry more about inflation than growth.
- In one line:The Chancellor will need to borrow more than expected in the upcoming fiscal year.
- In one line: Higher inflation means consumers’ confidence will remain weak in 2026.
- In one line:Tentative signs that consumers are willing to run down their high saving rate to support consumption.
- Risks are skewed to a hawkish hold by the Bank of England as the DMP shows rising price pressures.
- A slew of surveys last week suggests inflation risks are more prominent than growth weakness.
- Bank Rate expectations are moving with oil prices rather than economic data.
- In one line: Underlying inflation accelerating tips the balance towards rate hikes if oil prices stay high, or limits the room for cuts if oil prices fall back.
- In one line: Stabilising jobs and unemployment fall challenges the MPC assessment of how fast the labour market was loosening.
- In one line: House price inflation to remain weak in 2026.
- February GDP exaggerates monthly growth, but stripping out noise the economy was growing solidly.
- Oil prices consistently below $100/bl mean we are close to removing our forecast for an MPC rate hike.
- A payroll fall and wage slowdown in this week’s data will keep the MPC cautious about hiking.
- In one line: Import price growth will jump in the coming months.
- In one line:About half of the February GDP gain was erratic, but that still leaves signs of improving underlying growth as Budget uncertainty eased.
- In one line: Housing market activity will grind down over the course of 2026.
- In one line: Construction sector activity to remain weak in the coming months.
- In one line: Surging input prices will worry the MPC.
