Pantheon Macroeconomics

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UK Publications

Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Datanotes Weekly Monitor

UK Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, January 2026

  • In one line: Inflation miss too small to stop a March rate cut, but stubborn services inflation means a second cut this year is far from certain.

UK Datanote: U.K. Official House Price Index, December 2025

  • In one line: The housing market was resilient in 2025, but prices will rise more quickly in 2026.

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, January 2026

  • In one line: Consumers’ spending will boost January GDP growth.

UK Datanote: UK International Trade, December 2025

  • In one line: The trade deficit has some room to further improve.

UK Datanote: UK GDP December 2025

  • In one line:Disappointing Q4 keeps a March rate cut on track, but underlying momentum looks too solid for more than one rate cut this year.

UK Datanote: UK Report on Jobs Survey, January 2026

  • In one line: Hiring sentiment has further to improve in Q1.

UK Datanote: UK Labour Market Data, December / January 2026

  • In one line: Unemployment rate at 5-year high should seal a March rate cut, but more timely data suggests stabilisation.

16 February 2026 UK Monitor Week in review: sentiment rebounds, growth will follow

  • Further evidence of a rebound in growth came from the January RICS, BRC and REC surveys.
  • Q4 GDP disappointed consensus—not us—but the crucial business service sectors can drive a better Q1.
  • We expect inflation 0.1pp higher than the MPC, and payrolls to fall 10K month-to-month, in January.

9 February 2026 UK Monitor Forecast review: A dovish MPC will cut Bank Rate in March

  • Surveys support our call for GDP growth to have picked up to 0.4% quarter-to-quarter in Q4.
  • A dovish MPC means we have brought forward our forecast for the next cut to March, from April.
  • We think this will be the last reduction in this rate cycle, however, as wages are proving sticky.

UK Datanote: UK MPC Decision and Minutes, February 2026

  • In one line: Dovish vote and minutes make March close call and signal a desire to cut twice this year at least. 

UK Datanote: Construction PMI, January 2026

  • In one line: Construction activity to grind only modestly higher as tailwinds dissipate.

UK Datanote: UK Car Registrations, January 2026

  • In one line: Autos registrations will continue to rise slowly over the coming year.

UK Datanote: UK Final Services and Composite PMI, January 2026

  • In one line: Rebounding growth as uncertainty falls and stubborn price pressures point to just one Bank Rate cut this year.

UK Datanote: UK Final Manufacturing PMI, January 2026

  • In one line: Manufacturing activity can rise at a steady rate in 2026.

UK Datanote: UK Money & Credit, December 2025

  • In one line: More downbeat money and credit data, but good enough to signal economic growth close to potential.

UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Price Index, January 2026

  • In one line: House price inflation will continue to steadily rise over the coming year. 

2 February 2026 UK Monitor Week in review: BRC shop prices jump, and lending ticks down

  • A big jump in the BRC’s shop price index provides a warning of sticky price pressures.
  • The lending data for December were more downbeat than November’s, but consumers still seem content.
  • We forecast a six-to-three vote for a hold at this week’s MPC meeting, and expect little change to guidance .

UK Datanote: UK Flash PMIs, January 2026

  • In one line: Economic momentum to build in Q1.

UK Datanote: Retail Sales, December 2025

  • In one line:Retail sales rebound and have further to recover in 2026.
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Keywords for: U.K. Documents

U.K. Document Vault, independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence,