- In one line: Surveys are playing ball, the hard data will follow.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Construction growth accelerates further, supporting the recovery from last year's recession.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Cautious consumers keep private car sales falling.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Slowing inflation will make the MPC happy.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Cautious consumers keep private sales falling.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Retail sales bounce back from April’s catastrophe.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Manufacturing growth leaps and feeds through to modest price inflation.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: April was a bad month for consumers, but don’t write them off.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House prices are resisting the mortgage rate rise.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The BoE money and credit data suggest higher mortgage rates have taken the steam out of consumption.
- But the consumer credit data are distorted by data issues, and saving was driven by a record ISA flow.
- Business confidence is still rising, so we think the economy will keep growing robustly.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The collapse in retail sales volumes in April cuts 0.1pp from GDP growth…
- … but the wet weather and an odd ONS seasonal factor drove some of the sharp fall in April retail sales.
- Retail sales should bounce back strongly in May, and therefore we leave our GDP forecast unchanged.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Consumers will spend more as their financial situation improves.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Strengthening real wage growth drives a consumer upturn.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Retail sales will bounce back from April's collapse as consumer confidence improves.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House prices jump in March, but further gains will be more challenging as markets reprice rate cuts.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: June rate cut off the cards as services barely slows.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: There isn't room for tax cuts but the Chancellor seems set on another fiscal event in the Autumn.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We are unconcerned by the strong net trade contribution to Q1 GDP growth.
- Trade figures will be revised materially, and the Q1 contribution was offset by volatile stock-building.
- Export volumes rose 1.3% quarter-to-quarter in Q1, excluding precious metals, erratics and oil.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Slowing jobs growth keeps MPC rate cut on track , despite strong wage growth.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Falling energy prices improve trade deficit.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
