UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Chartbook Weekly Monitor Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- The MPC turned more dovish last week, just not as dramatically as the market expected.
- The US–UK trade deal will have a small impact on trade flows but could relieve some uncertainty.
- Strong GDP growth and upward payroll revisions should maintain the sense of monetary caution.
TARIFF SHOCK WORSENS WORST-CASE SCENARIO...
- …SO FASTER RATE CUTS LOOM
- The economy was growing solidly prior to tariffs, powered by consumers opening their wallets.
- Soft data are creaking, but they likely overstate economic weakness, the PMI in particular.
- A 50bp May rate cut is off the table, but we see a decent chance of 25bp reductions in May and June.
- Weaker-than-expected March inflation makes a May interest rate cut a racing certainty.
- Solid pre-tariff growth means we look for only three more 25bp Bank Rate cuts this year…
- …But downside risks allow earlier moves; we expect back-to-back ‘insurance’ cuts in May and June.
- GDP growth soared in February as industrial production and services activity rose higher…
- …But the ongoing global trade war has made incoming data obsolete.
- The MPC will be challenged by a broken trading environment and CPI at 3.5% in H2.
- The initial response to US tariffs suggests the barriers are more disinflationary for the UK than most.
- Markets are understandably pricing downside growth tail-risks and the UK avoiding retaliation, for now.
- But we continue to think this tariff fandango will eventually prove to be a stagflationary shock.
