UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Chartbook Weekly Monitor
- Surveys support our call for GDP growth to have picked up to 0.4% quarter-to-quarter in Q4.
- A dovish MPC means we have brought forward our forecast for the next cut to March, from April.
- We think this will be the last reduction in this rate cycle, however, as wages are proving sticky.
- A big jump in the BRC’s shop price index provides a warning of sticky price pressures.
- The lending data for December were more downbeat than November’s, but consumers still seem content.
- We forecast a six-to-three vote for a hold at this week’s MPC meeting, and expect little change to guidance .
POST-BUDGET REBOUND AND STICKY PAY GROWTH...
- …SO THE MPC CAN CUT RATES JUST ONCE THIS YEAR
- The labour market is still loosening gradually, but price pressures are sticky and growth is rebounding.
- Rising consumers’ confidence and the jump in the flash PMI suggest positive momentum in Q1.
- We remain comfortable with our call for just one more cut to Bank Rate this year, in April.
- Last week brought evidence that the economy has rebounded smartly from the annual Budget circus.
- GDP growth is on track to rise 0.1% quarter-to-quarter in Q4, 10bp more than the MPC assumed.
- We look for a 25K month-to-month payroll fall in December, and inflation to tick up to 3.3%.
- Firms are putting the Budget circus behind them, despite a disappointing headline PMI.
- Surveys of job growth improved in December, and redundancies dropped after a post-Budget surge.
- The DMP shows wage growth and inflation stuck well above target-consistent rates.
- The story of 2025 was growth averaging close to potential but inflation much higher than expected.
- We see similar trends in 2026, with growth rebounding in Q1 and inflation proving persistent.
- We expect the MPC to end its rate-cutting cycle with a 25bp Bank Rate reduction in April.
