UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Chartbook Weekly Monitor
- UK economic uncertainty has decoupled from soaring worries in the US.
- Consumer spending in the UK can recover, with uncertainty only modestly elevated.
- The PMI exaggerates weakness; the DMP shows jobs stalling rather than falling, and inflation rising.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- High and rising global economic policy uncertainty has hit business investment hard.
- But consumer spending is recovering from an autumn wobble, so GDP growth can improve in 2025.
- Inflation will peak at 3.7% in September, allowing the MPC to cut only twice more this year.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
GROWTH HOLDS UP BETTER THAN SURVEYS IMPLY
- …THE MPC CAN CUT ONLY TWICE MORE THIS YEAR
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The PMI signals an almost catastrophic jobs outlook, but more reliable official data are better.
- The official employment data look more plausible to us; payrolls have stalled rather than collapsed.
- Inflation is proving stubborn, as firms increasingly pass through cost increases to prices.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The economy is in better shape than feared, after a consensus-busting 0.4% GDP gain in December.
- The next OBR forecast will be based on lower gilt yields, giving Ms. Reeves back some headroom.
- We expect payrolls to be revised up, strong wage growth, and CPI inflation to jump to 2.8%.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We are unconcerned by the strong net trade contribution to Q1 GDP growth.
- Trade figures will be revised materially, and the Q1 contribution was offset by volatile stock-building.
- Export volumes rose 1.3% quarter-to-quarter in Q1, excluding precious metals, erratics and oil.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We still expect three rate cuts in total this year—two more—after the surprisingly dovish MPC voted to cut.
- Vote splits are a poor guide to subsequent decisions, while the MPC’s inflation forecast was hawkish.
- We expect Catherine Mann to explain this week that she was calling for a one-off rate adjustment.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Payroll-tax hikes are driving growth down and inflation up to a greater extent than we expected.
- We cut our 2025 GDP forecast to 1.1% year-over-year, from 1.3%, but raise inflation by 10bp to 3.1%.
- We retain our long-held call for three cuts to Bank Rate in 2025, with the first coming on Thursday.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
