UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor Weekly Monitor Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- Stronger ONS population forecasts should boost potential output growth by 0.1pp per year.
- The OBR will likely cut productivity growth forecasts, leaving potential growth unchanged.
- We estimate the Chancellor has about £5B of headroom against her fiscal rules.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Rebounding airfares, and private-school fee hikes, will drive up CPI inflation to 2.8% in January.
- CPI services inflation should surge to 5.2% in January, matching the MPC’s updated forecasts.
- Risks lie to the upside of our forecast for CPI inflation to reach 3.4% in April and 3.5% in September.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We still expect three rate cuts in total this year—two more—after the surprisingly dovish MPC voted to cut.
- Vote splits are a poor guide to subsequent decisions, while the MPC’s inflation forecast was hawkish.
- We expect Catherine Mann to explain this week that she was calling for a one-off rate adjustment.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The MPC’s words, forecasts and pay survey point to only one-to-two more rate cuts this year.
- Rate-setters are guiding to “careful and gradual” cuts, and placing more weight on their hawkish scenarios.
- So, we think the market has gone too far in pricing a better-than-even chance of three more cuts in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Surging uncertainty and payroll taxes are keeping the economy close to stagnation, according to the PMI.
- But the PMI also signals underlying services inflation accelerating back above 5%.
- The MPC will cut Bank Rate today but will give cautious guidance as it balances growth and inflation.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect GDP to stagnate in December, putting growth at -0.1% quarter-to-quarter in Q4.
- Industrial production likely fell, while we expect healthcare and education to detract from growth.
- A small upward revision to November’s GDP would be enough to avoid GDP falling in Q4 as a whole.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We think President Trump’s tariffs, by fracturing supply chains, will be stagflationary for the UK.
- We expect CPI inflation to accelerate to 2.8% in January, 0.3pp more than the MPC expected.
- Goods inflation will slow, but airfares and private-school fees will boost services inflation.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Payroll-tax hikes are driving growth down and inflation up to a greater extent than we expected.
- We cut our 2025 GDP forecast to 1.1% year-over-year, from 1.3%, but raise inflation by 10bp to 3.1%.
- We retain our long-held call for three cuts to Bank Rate in 2025, with the first coming on Thursday.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
